Stock Market Live Today: The GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, was trading 140 points, or 0.58 per cent, higher at 24,094 on NSE IX, indicating a positive opening for Dalal Street on Monday. According to market experts, investor sentiment in the holiday-shortened week is expected to be shaped largely by three factors: the evolving geopolitical landscape in West Asia, especially developments involving the Strait of Hormuz; quarterly earnings announcements from companies; and movements in crude oil prices. Asian equities moved higher on Monday after reports suggested that Iran had presented the US with a fresh proposal regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Market Drivers This Week
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said markets are likely to stay volatile and heavily influenced by news flow. Investors will be closely watching progress in US-Iran talks, fluctuations in crude prices, and broader international cues. A stable or softer crude oil market could help ease macroeconomic concerns and improve risk appetite. On the other hand, any escalation in tensions or extended disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could reignite volatility and lead to profit-taking. He added that the ongoing fourth-quarter earnings season will remain a major trigger for stock-specific movements. Investors are expected to closely analyse earnings figures, management commentary, future guidance, and sector outlooks to reassess growth prospects and valuations across industries. Concerns over inflation have intensified as tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude prices elevated. Apart from geopolitical developments, investors will also keep a close eye on the upcoming interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve.
IIP Data and Global Cues
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said domestic investors will track March 2026 industrial production data due on April 28, followed by foreign exchange reserve figures on May 1. On the global front, attention will centre on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on April 29, along with the advance estimate of US first-quarter GDP and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. He emphasised that the most significant macro trigger continues to be the geopolitical situation in West Asia. Developments involving the Strait of Hormuz and tensions between the US and Iran remain central to crude price volatility, with direct implications for inflation expectations and corporate profitability.
Key Earnings This Week
Among key earnings scheduled this week are UltraTech Cement, Coal India, and Varun Beverages on April 27; Maruti Suzuki on April 28; Bajaj Finance and Adani Power on April 29. Thursday will see a particularly heavy earnings lineup, including Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Enterprises, and Bajaj Finserv.
Geopolitical Risk Premium in Markets
Hariprasad K, founder and research analyst at Livelong Wealth, noted that rising tensions in West Asia, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, along with the collapse of US-Iran negotiations, have added a substantial geopolitical risk premium to global markets. This uncertainty has pushed crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude hovering around $107 a barrel. For India, he said, oil remains the most important macroeconomic variable. Persistently high crude prices can fuel inflation, weaken the rupee, and squeeze corporate margins across sectors. He also pointed out that a busy earnings calendar this week is likely to drive considerable stock-specific activity.
FII and DII Activity
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to offload Indian equities; FIIs remained net sellers during last week as it sold Rs 171.4 billion based on provisional exchange data. On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided strong support to the market, emerging as net buyers during last week with investments totalling Rs 97.8 billion based on provisional exchange data. The month-to-date trend remains the same for the 10th consecutive months with FIIs in the month of April till date having pulled out a substantial Rs 563.6 billion from Indian equities, while DIIs have infused Rs 394.8 billion during the same period as per provisional exchange data. Geo-political news continues to dominate institutional flows with President Donald Trump extending the US–Iran ceasefire until Tehran presents a unified proposal to end the conflict with the U.S. and Israel. It has briefly reduced concerns about geopolitical escalation but is likely to keep uncertainty elevated over a longer period. FIIs remained net sellers for all the five trading sessions last week, with the quantum of selling increasing in the second half of the week. Nifty snapped its two weeks winning streak and closed down by around 2 per cent with a sharp decline seen in the second half of the week. Market sentiment remained cautious as clarity on the geo-political tension and the trajectory of negotiations is still lacking. Brent crude prices remained high amid persistent supply concerns, particularly around the critical Strait of Hormuz, keeping energy markets in focus. Looking ahead, institutional activity is expected to be driven mainly by global news flows, with developments in US–Iran negotiations remaining a key monitorable due to their potential impact on geopolitical stability and global energy markets. The US FOMC and Bank of Japan rate decision followed by central bank commentary are also scheduled for next week which will also have an impact on the global equity market and institutional activity, says Pabitro Mukherjee, Associate Vice President – Research Bajaj Broking.
Market Snapshot
Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers on Friday, offloading equities worth Rs 8,827 crore. Domestic institutional investors, in contrast, provided support by purchasing shares worth Rs 4,700 crore on a net basis. Trading will be curtailed this week, with stock exchanges remaining shut on Friday on account of Maharashtra Day. Asian regional shares gained 1.2 per cent, while crude oil, after initially surging, pared some of its advances and was last up 1.4 per cent at $106.78 per barrel. Earlier in the session, prices had risen as much as 2.5 per cent. Gold, meanwhile, recovered from early losses to trade largely unchanged. US equities ended Friday on a strong note, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finishing at record highs. Optimism surrounding the possibility of renewed US-Iran negotiations helped lift sentiment. A sharp rally in Intel shares also boosted the broader semiconductor sector.
