The Indian stock market is likely to open on a range-bound note today. Analysts expect a mild positive bias, supported by continued strength in IT stocks. This follows Infosys' upgraded earnings guidance, which has boosted sentiment. The banking sector also shows steady resilience, providing a cushion.
Market Outlook and Key Factors
However, upside potential remains limited. Persistent FII outflows are capping gains. Global tariff uncertainties add to the pressure. Geopolitical concerns keep overall risk appetite cautious. Volatility is expected to stay elevated. This coincides with Q3 earnings announcements and global macro headlines.
Steady DII inflows could cushion any declines. But near-term direction will remain highly sensitive to FII flows. External cues will also play a crucial role in market movements.
Nifty 50 Analysis
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, shares his views. He believes the Indian stock market is sideways to positive. The Nifty 50 index is trading in a tight range between 25,500 and 25,900. A bullish or bearish trend can be assumed on the breakage of either side.
Bagadia explains the technical setup. The Nifty 50 index is currently trading below the 20, 50, and 100 EMA. This reflects weak short-term momentum. The 200 EMA near 25,940 remains a key overhead resistance.
Recent candles show a mild recovery attempt. But the structure still reflects lower highs. This suggests the move is corrective rather than trend-reversing. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,800–25,850. A stronger supply zone lies near 25,900.
On the downside, 25,500–25,550 remains an important support area. A breakdown below this could invite further pressure.
Bank Nifty Analysis
Bagadia also comments on the Bank Nifty index. The index has formed a short-term higher low structure. This is followed by a steady recovery. The index has moved back above the 20- and 50-EMA. This suggests a return of short-term momentum.
The recovery from the recent swing low near 59,000 indicates active buyer defense. However, the price is still approaching a supply area near prior breakdown levels. This keeps the structure cautious.
Immediate resistance is placed around 60,300–60,400. Selling pressure may re-emerge here. A decisive breakout and acceptance above this zone could open the door to further upside.
On the downside, 59,700–59,800 acts as the first line of support. The 59,600–59,500 level remains a crucial breakdown point. A breach below this could negate the recovery attempt.
Breakout Stocks to Consider
Regarding breakout stocks to buy today, Sumeet Bagadia recommends five shares. These are UPL, Tech Mahindra, BoB, JSW Steel, and Grasim.
UPL
Buy at ₹790.15, target ₹855, stop loss ₹761. UPL share price is trading around ₹790.15. It shows a positive technical outlook with a strong uptrend. A bullish pullback structure is visible on the daily chart. Price action reflects higher highs and higher lows, indicating trend continuation.
The stock is trading above its key short- and medium-term EMAs. These are sloping upward and providing dynamic support. RSI is holding above the neutral zone and rising. This highlights improving bullish momentum. On sustained strength, the stock can move towards ₹855.
Tech Mahindra
Buy at ₹1670.50, target ₹1815, stop loss ₹1600. The stock shows a positive technical outlook. A clear flag and pole pattern is visible on the daily chart. This indicates a strong bullish continuation setup. Price action reflects higher highs and higher lows, confirming the ongoing uptrend.
The stock is trading above its key short- and medium-term EMAs. These are sloping upward and providing strong dynamic support. RSI is holding in the bullish zone and rising. This signals sustained momentum. On a successful breakout, the stock can move towards ₹1815.
Bank of Baroda (BoB)
Buy at ₹308.25, target ₹330, stop loss ₹295. The stock is maintaining a strong bullish trend on the daily chart. It shows a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows. After a prolonged mid-year consolidation, the stock has witnessed a decisive trend-resumption breakout. It is now trading at all-time highs.
JSW Steel
Buy at ₹1187, target ₹1280, stop loss ₹1145. The stock is exhibiting a well-defined bullish trend on the daily chart. It is supported by a strong price structure and alignment with moving averages. After a corrective phase from recent highs, the stock has staged a healthy pullback and rebound. This indicates renewed buying interest at lower levels.
Grasim Industries
Buy at ₹2809, target ₹3000, stop loss ₹2700. The stock is currently in a range-bound to mildly bullish structure within a broader uptrend. It has been consolidating after a strong prior rally. This indicates a time-based correction rather than price-based damage.
The price is hovering near the 20 EMA and 50 EMA. This suggests short-term indecision. The 100 EMA and 200 EMA continue to slope upward. They act as strong medium- to long-term support, preserving the overall bullish framework.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
