The Indian stock market is anticipated to commence trading on a flat to mildly positive note today, buoyed by sustained optimism surrounding the recently concluded India–European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA). This landmark pact, which eliminates tariffs on an impressive 90 to 96 percent of traded goods, is structurally advantageous for India's export-oriented sectors. Industries such as textiles, apparel, leather, gems and jewellery, marine products, tea, coffee, chemicals, and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) stand to gain significantly. Furthermore, the agreement is poised to facilitate enhanced technology inflows, greater mobility for services, and bolster India's long-term competitive edge on the global stage.
Economic Survey 2025–26 Takes Center Stage
Market attention today is squarely focused on the release of the Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2025–26, scheduled for 11:00 AM. This crucial document will set the tone and guide market expectations for the upcoming Union Budget, to be presented on February 1. Key areas under scrutiny include projected capital expenditure, which is speculated to be around Rs 12 lakh crore for FY27, the government's commitment to fiscal discipline, and anticipated policy support for critical sectors like infrastructure, defence, and manufacturing.
Factors Capping Near-Term Upside
Despite the positive undercurrents, immediate market gains may be restrained by several factors. Persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows continue to exert pressure, while traders are actively engaged in pre-Budget positioning, leading to cautious sentiment. Mixed global cues, exacerbated by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, also contribute to the cap on upside potential. However, a cooling India VIX (volatility index), stable domestic macroeconomic indicators, and underlying strength in the banking sector are expected to provide solid downside support. Consequently, trading is likely to remain largely range-bound with selective, stock-specific action dominating the session.
US Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady
In international developments, the US Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Chair Jerome Powell, concluded its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate within the existing range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. In its official statement, the FOMC affirmed, "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 per cent." This status quo from the world's most influential central bank provides a measure of stability to global financial markets.
Gold and Silver Rates Surge Higher
Following the Fed's steady stance and a concomitant weakness in the US Dollar, both gold and silver prices witnessed robust buying activity in early morning trading. The COMEX silver rate today opened with a noticeable upside gap, soaring to an intraday high of $119.450 per ounce, marking a fresh peak for the white metal. Similarly, COMEX gold futures experienced a strong gap-up opening. The actively traded April 2026 expiry gold contract is currently trading higher by over 3.50 percent, at approximately $5,530 per ounce, reflecting strong safe-haven demand and currency dynamics.
Indian Rupee Finds Support
Commenting on the outlook for the US Dollar against the Indian Rupee (USD/INR), Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst for Commodity & Currency at LKP Securities, noted, "The Indian Rupee found support also due to the secondary market showing strong positive momentum, largely driven by Pre-Budget positioning. The Nifty PSE and the Nifty CPSE indices are seeing significant gains. This surge is attributed to higher fund flows into state-owned enterprises as investors anticipate policy support in the upcoming Union Budget."
Technical Outlook for Key Indices
Nifty 50 and Sensex
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, provided his technical perspective on the Nifty 50 and Sensex. He stated, "For day traders, 25,200/82,000 would act as a key support zone. Above 25,200/82,000, the pullback rally could continue till 25,500/82,800. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index to 25,575/83,000. On the flip side, below 25,200/82,000, sentiment could change. If the index falls below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions."
Bank Nifty
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, analyzed the Bank Nifty's chart setup. He explained, "The Bank Nifty has formed an interesting chart setup, as it moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after spending a good four days below it. Prior to this, the index formed a piercing line pattern on the daily timeframe. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was seen making lower lows along the falling trendline without piercing it, and has recently entered a positive crossover. On the hourly chart, the index has reclaimed the 200-day Moving Average (DMA), suggesting waning bearishness. Immediate resistance is placed at 59,700; a decisive move above this level could further improve sentiment in the banking space. Supports are placed at 59,400 and 59,000."
Stocks to Buy Today: Expert Recommendations
Market experts have identified several intraday trading opportunities for today. Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal of Prabhudas Lilladher have collectively recommended eight stocks for consideration.
Sumeet Bagadia's Picks
- Canara Bank: Buy at ₹157.70, target ₹168.40, stop loss ₹152. The stock shows sustained bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows, supported by robust volumes and positioning above all key moving averages.
- Jindal Steel: Buy at ₹1120, target ₹1200, stop loss ₹1080. The stock is in a strong bullish trend, having broken out from a rounding base pattern and recently touching its all-time high.
Ganesh Dongre's Selections
- Paytm: Buy at ₹1177, target ₹1220, stop loss ₹1145. Exhibiting a consistent bullish pattern with a solid support base at ₹1145.
- Hindustan Petroleum: Buy at ₹433, target ₹450, stop loss ₹420. Shows a notable and continuous bullish pattern.
- UPL: Buy at ₹712, target ₹740, stop loss ₹680. The stock is reversing from a support base, showing signs of renewed strength.
Shiju Koothupalakkal's Intraday Ideas
- HBL Engineering: Buy at ₹734, target ₹785, stop loss ₹714. After a correction and consolidation, the stock shows revival with improved volume and a positive RSI trend reversal.
- Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers: Buy at ₹135, target ₹145, stop loss ₹132. Found support near ₹126, indicating revival with a positive candle formation.
- BHEL: Buy at ₹259.65, target ₹280, stop loss ₹252. After a correction, the stock has taken support and shows strong revival with a bullish candle formation.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
