Market sentiment in India remained fragile last week as equities moved within a narrow range, reflecting uncertainty driven by global geopolitical tensions and volatile crude oil prices. While benchmark indices managed modest gains, sectoral and stock-specific movements told a more mixed story.
Market Performance Last Week
The BSE Sensex gained 414.69 points or 0.53%, while the NSE Nifty rose 178.6 points or 0.74%. However, the combined valuation of four major firms, including SBI, Bharti Airtel, TCS, and Larsen & Toubro, declined sharply, with SBI alone losing over Rs 44,000 crore in market capitalisation. Meanwhile, financial heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, along with Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finance, provided some support by adding significant value.
Analysts expect markets to remain highly sensitive to US–Iran developments, inflation data, foreign investor activity, and upcoming corporate earnings, all of which are likely to determine near-term direction and volatility across sectors.
Key Triggers for This Week
Geopolitical tensions around the US–Iran situation and movements in crude oil prices continue to drive investor sentiment. Traders will also keep a close watch on the rupee-dollar exchange rate and foreign fund flows, which are likely to add to market volatility.
Foreign investors have continued to trim their exposure to Indian equities, pulling out Rs 14,231 crore so far this month amid ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty. Market experts said the outlook remains largely event-driven, with geopolitical tensions, crude oil movements and rupee volatility expected to steer sentiment in the near term.
Expert Views
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, noted that Indian equity markets saw a volatile and range-bound week, with sentiment staying cautious despite brief recovery attempts. Early optimism from expectations of easing Middle East tensions and softer oil prices faded as US–Iran tensions resurfaced.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research – Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said that Indian equities are likely to stay highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the near term, with markets expected to move within a broader range. He noted that investors will closely watch India's April CPI inflation data for cues on the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate trajectory. In global markets, US April CPI and PPI readings will also be key, as they could influence Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, bond yields and overall risk sentiment.
Stocks to Watch
Brokerages remained positive on select stocks across banking, consumer, housing finance and industrial sectors, highlighting steady earnings visibility and strong outlooks. Key stocks include HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, and Bajaj Finance, which added over Rs 46,000 crore in value last week.
Outlook
Markets are set to remain highly volatile this week, with geopolitical headlines around the US–Iran situation guiding direction. A fall in crude below the $90 level or any progress towards de-escalation could support recovery in risk assets. On the other hand, sustained tensions or escalation may keep volatility elevated and weigh on sentiment.
