Vodafone Idea Share Price Under Pressure Ahead of Q3 Results
Shares of beleaguered telecom operator Vodafone Idea remained in focus on Tuesday as investors awaited the company's December quarter results announcement scheduled for later in the day. The stock traded within a tight range during early sessions, touching a low of ₹9.71 and a high of ₹10, reflecting cautious market sentiment ahead of the earnings release.
Weak Start to 2026 Despite Government Relief
The new year has begun on a challenging note for Vodafone Idea shareholders, with the stock declining nearly 15% on a month-to-date basis. This recent weakness follows a substantial 34% rally in 2025, which was primarily driven by significant regulatory relief from the Indian government regarding the company's adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues.
Earlier this month, Vodafone Idea announced that the government has capped annual payments to clear past AGR dues at ₹124 crore for the next six years, providing crucial near-term cash flow relief. According to a stock exchange filing citing communication from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), the annual outgo will be further reduced to ₹100 crore between March 2032 and March 2035. The remaining AGR dues must be settled in equal annual installments over six years starting March 2036.
Analysts Expect Muted Q3 Performance
Despite this regulatory reprieve, market analysts anticipate a subdued performance from Vodafone Idea for the December quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (Q3FY26). Most projections indicate flattish revenue growth, with subscriber losses potentially offset by marginal improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU).
Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) forecasts a modest 1.3% year-on-year revenue increase to ₹11,261.1 crore, while expecting losses to widen to ₹6,763.9 crore during the quarter. The brokerage models a quarterly subscriber decline of 4 million, significantly higher than the 1 million losses recorded in the previous quarter, bringing the total subscriber base down to 192.7 million. ARPU is projected to show slight improvement, rising to ₹169 per month from ₹167 in Q2FY26, driven by better subscriber mix.
Nuvama Research similarly anticipates widening losses alongside minimal revenue growth of just 1.1% year-on-year. Analysts highlight that progress on 5G rollout, fundraising initiatives, and AGR-related developments will remain key monitorables for the company's future trajectory.
Technical Analysis Signals Downside Risk
Technical indicators suggest the risk-reward ratio remains decisively skewed to the downside for Vodafone Idea shares. According to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, the stock has broken below its critical support level of ₹10.47, confirming structural weakness on higher timeframes.
"The stock's inability to retest the prior swing high near ₹13.1 reflects fading demand and loss of upside momentum," Jain observed. "The current breakdown has trapped recent long positions, triggering fresh liquidation pressure. Price structure across daily and weekly charts remains weak, with moving averages turning into overhead resistance."
Jain further noted that sustained trading below ₹10.47 could open the path toward the 50-week exponential moving average near ₹9.37, which represents the next immediate downside target. If selling pressure persists and this level fails to hold, a deeper extension toward ₹8.55 becomes increasingly likely. He advised investors to use any interim bounce as a sell-on-rallies opportunity until the stock reclaims key broken levels with substantial volume.
Investment Approach: Caution Advised
Market experts recommend exercising caution when approaching Vodafone Idea stock ahead of the quarterly results. Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, emphasized that investors should prioritize caution over expectation, noting that while the stock has historically seen speculative interest before results announcements, underlying fundamentals remain fragile.
"The key variables to watch this quarter are not revenue growth or subscriber additions, but cash flow visibility, funding clarity, and commentary on dues and capex sustainability," Dasani stated. "Without a concrete capital infusion roadmap, quarterly operational improvements offer limited comfort. From a positioning standpoint, this is not a results-driven trade. Any sharp move post-results is likely to be sentiment-led rather than fundamentals-backed."
As Vodafone Idea prepares to announce its Q3FY26 results, the market remains focused on the company's ability to navigate ongoing challenges despite recent regulatory relief. The telecom operator continues to face significant headwinds in a competitive industry landscape, with funding requirements and operational sustainability remaining critical concerns for long-term investors.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
