Prominent market strategist Ed Yardeni has laid out an exceptionally bullish long-term vision for global financial markets, predicting that the S&P 500 index could soar to the 10,000 mark and gold prices could double from current levels by the year 2029. This forecast comes as spot gold achieved a historic peak, reaching an all-time high of $4,383.73 per ounce on Monday, December 22.
The Road to 10,000: A Dual Forecast for Stocks and Gold
In an interview highlighted by CNBC TV-18, Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, detailed his "Roaring 2020s" thesis. He explained that while gold and the S&P 500 often move inversely in the short term—making gold an effective diversifier for a US stock portfolio—their long-term trajectory is strikingly similar. This parallel growth underpins his dual target of 10,000 for both the equity index and the precious metal by the end of the decade.
Gold has already surged by an impressive 67% this year, driven by a confluence of factors including strong safe-haven demand, ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, substantial purchases by central banks worldwide, a softer US dollar, and growing expectations of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
Short-Term Milestones and Market Volatility Ahead
Yardeni also provided a nearer-term milestone for the S&P 500, estimating it will climb to 7,700 by the close of 2026. With the index currently standing at 6,834.50, reflecting a 16.2% gain year-to-date, this target suggests a potential upside of approximately 13%. Achieving this would mark the fourth consecutive year of double-digit growth for the benchmark.
The strategist warned of increased turbulence in the artificial intelligence sector in 2026. He observed that the so-called 'Magnificent 7' technology stocks, which previously operated in their own silos, are now in direct competition because of AI. This intensifying rivalry is expected to fuel significant capital expenditure, creating a ripple effect that benefits other tech companies providing essential infrastructure and services.
India vs. China and Global Policy Perspectives
Shifting focus to emerging markets, Yardeni shared his outlook for India. He termed 2025 as a likely year of "consolidation" for the Indian stock market following a period of strong outperformance. He indicated that 2026 could be a more promising year, with the potential for new highs if trade discussions with the United States reach a favourable resolution.
When comparing the two Asian giants, Yardeni expressed a clear preference for India's investment landscape. "There’s opportunities to invest in both China and India, though my preference is to invest in India simply because I like the legal and corporate system better than what I see in China," he stated.
Commenting on global monetary policy, Yardeni addressed the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike, noting its limited impact so far. He characterized Japan's current strategy as a "highly contradictory fiscal and monetary policy," where the central bank is tapping the brakes due to inflation concerns while the government aggressively presses the accelerator on fiscal spending.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. The views and recommendations are those of the analyst. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions are subject to rapid change.
