Bumper Harvest Forecast for India's Kharif Season
India is set to witness a significant increase in its kharif foodgrain production for the 2025-26 season, with the first advance estimates from the Union agriculture ministry projecting output to reach 173.33 million tonnes. Released on Wednesday, the data attributes this growth to plentiful monsoon rains that expanded sowing areas and improved yields across the country.
This year's estimate marks a substantial jump of 3.87 million tonnes compared to the previous year's output. The timely and well-distributed monsoon has been a key driver, benefiting most agricultural regions and setting a positive tone for the nation's food security.
Crop-Wise Breakdown and Diversification Trends
The ministry's detailed estimates reveal promising numbers for major crops. Rice production is anticipated to be 124.50 million tonnes, which is 1.73 million tonnes higher than the last kharif season.
However, the most remarkable surge is seen in maize output, which is projected to rise sharply by 3.49 million tonnes to 28.30 million tonnes. This significant increase signals a notable shift, as farmers are increasingly diversifying their crops to secure better prices, driven by strong demand from the feed and starch industries.
In the category of coarse cereals, production is pegged at 41.41 million tonnes. The output for kharif pulses is estimated at 7.41 million tonnes, with tur expected at 3.59 million tonnes, urad at 1.20 million tonnes, and moong at 1.72 million tonnes.
The oilseeds sector also shows robust growth, with total production estimated at 27.56 million tonnes. This includes groundnut at 11.09 million tonnes (an increase of 0.68 million tonnes from last year) and soybean at 14.26 million tonnes.
Economic Impact and Market Dynamics
Economists view this increase in production as a positive development for controlling inflation. The rise in output of rice, maize, and oilseeds is expected to ease supply pressures and help keep food inflation in check, a critical concern for the economy.
D.K. Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, stated that the estimates align with their expectations. He noted, "This has been a year of excess rain, but not all parts of the country were adversely affected. Other regions performed well, and overall we are doing reasonably well on agriculture." He also expressed a positive outlook for the upcoming rabi season, suggesting that overall crop production should remain strong.
The report also highlights contrasting fortunes for other major crops. Sugarcane production is estimated at a massive 475.61 million tonnes, up by 21 million tonnes, indicating a supportive cycle for sugar mills.
In contrast, cotton output is projected to be nearly stagnant at 29.21 million bales (of 170 kg each), compared to 29.72 million bales in 2024-25. Industry experts attribute this trend to reduced farmer enthusiasm, partly due to the government’s zero-duty import policy, which has suppressed domestic prices during peak arrival periods.
Ganesh Nanote, a cotton farmer from Maharashtra's Vidarbha region, explained the shift: "Cotton hasn’t given steady returns for the last two years, and with the government allowing imports at zero duty, the rates fell further during peak arrivals. Many of us tried maize because the demand from feed mills is strong, and the crop is less risky in terms of input cost."
This robust kharif harvest is considered essential for sustaining the government's PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, which provides 5 kg of free foodgrains monthly to over 80 crore beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act.
Commenting on the cotton scenario, Manish Daga, Managing Director of Cotton Guru, pointed out that the estimate of 29.21 million bales indicates a below-normal crop. He emphasized the need for fast crop-loss audits and moisture management to stabilize markets and prevent distress sales by farmers.
