Trump's Assertion on India Halting Russian Oil Imports Faces Practical Hurdles
In a recent announcement, US President Donald Trump declared that India has agreed to cease purchasing crude oil from Russia, its largest supplier, and will instead increase imports from the United States and Venezuela. This statement came alongside a reduction in US tariffs on India from 50% to 18%. However, the feasibility of such a drastic shift is being questioned by industry experts and analysts, who cite significant technical, commercial, and strategic challenges.
Government and Industry Response to Trump's Claim
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian government have welcomed the trade deal with the US but have remained silent on Trump's specific claim regarding Russian oil. Indian refiners have reportedly not received any official directives from the government to halt Russian imports. Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal reiterated that India's primary focus is on ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion citizens, emphasizing a strategy of diversifying energy sources based on market conditions and international dynamics.
Why a Sudden Halt to Russian Oil Imports Is Unlikely
Existing Contracts and Refinery Dependencies: Indian refiners have already secured Russian oil cargoes through March and part of April, making an immediate cessation impractical. Notably, Nayara Energy, which processes 400,000 barrels per day, relies almost entirely on Russian crude due to EU sanctions and Rosneft's shareholder status. Cutting off this supply could effectively shut down the refinery unless alternative sources are secured.
Gradual Reduction Expected: Analysts, including Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, predict that imports from Russia, which averaged 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, may decline to around 500,000 barrels per day rather than dropping to zero. This would still represent a significant reduction but allow for a managed transition.
Challenges in Replacing Russian Crude with US and Venezuelan Oil
Technical and Commercial Barriers: Replacing Russian oil with alternatives is not straightforward. US crude is lighter and sweeter compared to the medium-sour crudes from Russia and West Asia that Indian refineries are accustomed to, though they can process various grades. Shipping costs from the US to India are more than double those from West Asia, impacting competitiveness.
Venezuelan Oil Limitations: While Venezuela's crude is more similar to Russian oil, its production is limited to about 1 million barrels per day, with high demand in the US. Increasing output would require years of investment, making it only a partial substitute.
Strategic Autonomy and Geopolitical Considerations
India has consistently emphasized its strategic autonomy in energy trade, resisting US pressure to cut ties with Russia, a key historical partner. Recent reductions in Russian oil imports followed US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil rather than direct policy shifts. Maintaining some level of Russian imports aligns with India's energy security goals and could still pressure Russia economically, as noted by experts.
Industry analysts conclude that while India may gradually reduce its reliance on Russian oil, a complete and immediate halt is improbable due to these multifaceted challenges.
