India's purchases of Russian crude oil are projected to decline to their lowest level in at least three years during December, as the country's refiners shift to alternative suppliers to avoid violating Western sanctions imposed over Moscow's war in Ukraine.
Sanctions Trigger Import Decline
According to trade and refining sources, India is expected to import only 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day of Russian oil in December. This represents a significant drop from multi-month highs recorded in November and marks the lowest import volume since at least 2020.
The decline comes as Britain, the European Union, and the United States have intensified sanctions against Russia. Washington's latest measures specifically target top Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, with buyers having until November 21 to wind down dealings with both companies.
Separately, the European Union has established a January 21 deadline after which it will refuse fuel from refineries that processed Russian crude within 60 days of the bill of lading.
Bank Scrutiny Forces Caution Among Refiners
Increased bank scrutiny following the latest U.S. sanctions has made Indian state refiners "extremely cautious," according to one refining source. The December imports will include shipments to Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy, and delivery of some November-loading cargoes for Reliance Industries.
Provisional data from Kpler shows that India received approximately 1.87 million barrels per day of Russian crude this month. In October, the country imported 1.65 million bpd of Russian oil, representing a 2% increase from September levels.
"Russian supply is expected to be high in November as many refineries tried to fill the stocks prior to the U.S. sanctions deadline and also due to the rule for oil products production for EU market from non-Russian oil from 2026," explained a trade source who requested anonymity.
Major Refiners Halt Russian Purchases
Most Indian refiners have completely stopped buying Russian oil. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd are among those who have suspended purchases from Russia.
State-run Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum Corp have stated they will only purchase from non-sanctioned entities. Meanwhile, Nayara Energy, which is partly owned by Rosneft, continues to process Russian oil exclusively after other suppliers withdrew following British and EU sanctions.
Reliance Industries Ltd has confirmed it loaded Russian oil cargoes "precommitted" as of October 22 and will process any parcels arriving after November 20 at its refinery dedicated to producing fuels for the domestic market.
The share of U.S. oil in India's imports surged to its highest level since June 2024 in October as refiners capitalized on an arbitrage opportunity. India also faces additional pressure to increase U.S. energy purchases after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50%, citing New Delhi's continued acquisition of Russian oil.
