India's merchandise exports to the United States showed a significant recovery in October 2025, breaking a four-month declining streak despite facing challenging global trade conditions and high American tariffs.
October Export Performance Shows Mixed Results
According to trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India's exports to the US reached $6.3 billion in October, marking a 14.5% increase from September. This represents the first month-on-month growth since May, even as Washington maintained its 50% tariff on most Indian goods.
However, the recovery remains fragile when viewed in annual perspective. As noted by GTRI's co-founder Ajay Srivastava, the October 2025 figure of $6.3 billion still falls short of the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024.
Broader Export Landscape Remains Challenging
The positive US numbers contrast sharply with India's overall export performance. India's total exports declined by 11.8% year-on-year in October, with only five of its top 20 markets showing any growth.
The global demand weakness was particularly evident in exports to other key destinations. Shipments to Singapore plummeted by 54.9%, while exports to Australia dropped by 52.4%. Other major markets including the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and France all registered double-digit declines.
Spain emerged as a bright spot with a 43.4% increase, largely driven by higher petroleum product shipments. China, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Belgium were the only other markets to show year-on-year growth.
Sector-Specific Impact and Government Response
The engineering goods sector experienced a sharp contraction, with exports falling 16.71% year-on-year to $9.37 billion in October 2025 compared to $11.25 billion in October 2024.
Pankaj Chadha, chairman of Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), attributed this decline to the 50% tariff imposed by the US that came into effect in late August. Despite the October setback, cumulative engineering exports for April-October period showed a positive growth of 1.68%, reaching $68.73 billion.
The textile industry faced similar challenges. According to Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) analysis, textile exports fell 12.92% in October 2025 compared to the same month last year, while apparel exports declined by 12.88%.
Specific textile categories showed varied performance. Cotton yarn, fabrics, made-ups and handloom products dropped by 13.31%, while man-made yarn, fabrics and made-ups recorded an 11.75% fall. Jute products including floor coverings saw the sharpest decline at 27.27%.
The government has responded with support measures including the ₹25,060 crore Export Promotion Mission (EPM) and up to ₹20,000 crore of additional credit support, with priority given to engineering goods and other labor-intensive sectors.
Industry leaders remain cautiously optimistic. K.L. Bansal, chairman of DEE Development Engineers, noted that the $6 billion exports to the US in October highlight growing trust in India's engineering and manufacturing capabilities, reflecting a shift toward high-quality, innovation-led production.
