Middle East Conflict Triggers Dry Fruit Supply Crisis in India, Prices Skyrocket
The escalating military confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which reached a critical flashpoint on Saturday, combined with the ongoing parallel war between Afghanistan and Pakistan, has severely disrupted the import of nuts and dried fruits into India. This geopolitical turmoil is casting a long shadow over the supply chains for essential commodities, leading to immediate and severe economic repercussions for consumers and businesses across the nation.
Geopolitical Tensions Choke Vital Import Routes
India relies heavily on imports of premium dry fruits such as figs, almonds, pistachios, raisins, saffron, and apricots from Iran and Afghanistan. The supply situation has been deteriorating since the United States initiated attacks on Iran in June 2025, with a significant further disruption occurring in October when Pakistan launched military operations into Afghanistan. The latest developments over the weekend, including missile strikes and explosions reported across the Middle East, are expected to exacerbate these shortages dramatically, potentially leading to a complete halt in shipments.
"Supplies of dry fruit and nuts may be entirely halted, and we will have to manage with existing stock," warned Vijay Bhuta, President of the Mumbai Dryfruit and Date Merchants Association and Director at APMC. "Already, despatches from Afghanistan are being rerouted through Iranian ports since direct shipments via the Wagah Border in Amritsar were halted two years ago due to the India-Pakistan conflict. The closure of this lone remaining Iranian route will completely choke off arrivals."
Severe Price Inflation Hits Consumers and Businesses
While Bhuta estimated the current price hike at around 5%, other traders in major Mumbai markets report far more severe increases. Interviews with wholesalers and retailers at APMC Vashi, Crawford Market, Masjid Bunder, and Malad reveal a steady and alarming escalation in costs.
Baban Pawar of A-1 Dryfruit in Crawford Market provided detailed figures: "Iranian imports like pistachios, apricots, mamra almonds, and saffron are now costlier by an average of 20-30%, with some items seeing prices double. The wholesale rate for mamra almond has surged from Rs 1,800 per kg in October to Rs 2,800 today. Iranian pistachios have jumped from Rs 840 to Rs 1,300, and Iranian apricots, which were Rs 750 in December 2025, now command Rs 1,400."
The impact on consumer behavior is immediate and stark. Pawar noted that sales have plummeted by 50% since 2025, with customers who previously purchased one kilogram now buying only a quarter kilogram due to the prohibitive costs.
Widespread Supply Chain Disruptions and Future Uncertainty
Mehul Gala, a trader based in Malad, highlighted the precarious nature of the supply chain: "If Iran closes its borders completely, all imports from there will halt. The transportation of dry fruits from Afghanistan will also suffer significantly. We could see severe price hikes or outright supply scarcity for Afghan dry fruits in the short term. Major markets in Mumbai and Delhi have already withdrawn their previous price lists, and new, higher rates will be announced imminently."
The crisis extends beyond individual consumers to bulk buyers across various industries. Sweetmeat manufacturers, hotels, restaurants, bakeries, confectioners, dairies, snack producers, caterers, home chefs, the processed food industry, and even cosmetics manufacturers are all expected to bear the brunt of these shortages and price increases.
Industry-Specific Impacts and Wedding Season Concerns
Vicky Jaisinghani of A-1 Sweets in Ulhasnagar explained the dilemma faced by businesses reliant on specific imports: "Imported Pishori pistachios have skyrocketed from Rs 2,600 to Rs 3,400 per kilogram. Iranian pistachios have increased from Rs 1,650 to Rs 2,400. Yet, we have no choice but to purchase them because our traditional sweets will not retain their authentic taste without using Pishori pistachios."
Mayur Shah of Pravinchandra & Co. in Masjid Bunder expressed concern about the upcoming peak wedding season: "We have not yet hiked our retail rates, but we may be forced to do so once our existing stocks are depleted. While cashews are sourced domestically and almonds also come from California, imported items like figs, pistachios, saffron, and apricots will be severely impacted. This disruption will directly affect the wedding season, which is about to peak, potentially increasing costs for celebrations across the country."
The confluence of multiple international conflicts has created a perfect storm for India's dry fruit market, with no immediate resolution in sight. Traders, businesses, and consumers are bracing for further volatility and scarcity as geopolitical tensions continue to dictate the flow of these essential commodities.
