The influential Indian IT industry body, Nasscom, has raised a red flag against the Donald Trump administration's proposed overhaul of the H-1B visa selection process. The new policy, which shifts from a random lottery to a wage-based system, is predicted to have a crushing effect on small and mid-sized Indian technology companies operating in the United States.
From Lottery to Wage-Based Selection: A Fundamental Shift
The statement from Nasscom, issued on 25 December 2025, responds to a significant policy change. The long-standing random lottery system for selecting H-1B visa beneficiaries is being replaced. In its place, the US government plans to implement a process that prioritizes applicants with higher wages and better skills.
This proposal follows closely on the heels of another restrictive measure announced by the White House on the preceding Friday. That announcement introduced a staggering $100,000 fee for employers seeking H-1B visas, a move explicitly designed to limit the influx of lower-wage foreign labor into the American market.
Why Small and Mid-Sized Firms Will Bear the Brunt
Nasscom argues that the abrupt transition to a wage-weighted model is particularly detrimental for smaller enterprises. These companies often rely on specific, predictable timelines to manage their talent pipeline and project deliveries.
"A sudden shift to a wage-weighted model would introduce uncertainty, increase compliance complexity, and disrupt long-established workforce planning," Nasscom stated. The body emphasized that this disruption hits hardest for firms that align their recruitment with academic calendars, client delivery schedules, and product release cycles.
Unlike larger corporations with deeper financial reserves, these smaller players may struggle to offer the higher wage packages needed to secure visas under the new rules, putting them at a severe competitive disadvantage.
Compliance Complexity and Planning Uncertainty
The core of Nasscom's concern lies in the operational chaos the new rules could unleash. The H-1B visa lottery, for all its randomness, provided a known framework. The wage-based system injects a new layer of financial and regulatory complexity.
Companies must now forecast not just skill needs but also the prevailing wage levels for those roles, adding significant compliance overhead. This uncertainty makes it nearly impossible for firms to plan long-term projects or honor client commitments with confidence, directly threatening business continuity and growth for a vital segment of the Indian IT export sector.
As the situation develops, the Indian tech industry watches closely, hoping for policy adjustments that consider the operational realities of global service delivery. The move marks a continued tightening of US immigration pathways for skilled workers under the Trump administration, with Indian IT companies positioned squarely in the crosshairs.
