In a significant shift for India's energy imports, previously obscure intermediaries and trading firms are now stepping up to supply Russian crude oil to Indian refiners. This change comes directly in the wake of US sanctions imposed on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, which have disrupted the established supply chains.
Sanctions Trigger a Dramatic Market Reshuffle
The United States announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, 2025, setting a wind-down deadline of November 21. The impact was swift and severe. According to an analysis of provisional tanker data from commodity analytics firm Kpler, the combined share of Rosneft and Lukoil in Russian oil loadings destined for India plummeted to just 17.4% in December 2025. This marks a dramatic fall from 63.1% in November and 70.4% in October.
Consequently, India's imports of Russian crude oil in December fell to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). This is the lowest level in three years, down from 1.8 million bpd in November. Russia has been India's top crude supplier for over three years, especially after offering discounted oil following the Ukraine invasion in February 2022.
The Rise of the New Middlemen
As the sanctioned majors retreated, a host of new entities entered the fray to keep the oil flowing. Firms that had rarely, if ever, supplied crude to India before are now key players. Data highlights several new suppliers based primarily in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), about whom little public information is available.
The top dispatchers of Russian oil to India in December, based on loading data, were:
- Redwood Global Supply FZE: Over 244,000 bpd
- Alghaf Marine DMCC: Over 184,000 bpd
- RusExport: Almost 158,000 bpd
Other notable new entrants include Ethos Energy, Arcadia International FZE, Rosewood Resources, and Vistula Delta. In stark contrast, Rosneft's direct dispatches to India crashed to around 122,000 bpd in December from nearly 807,000 bpd in November. Lukoil's loadings stood at just over 98,000 bpd.
Adaptation and the Road Ahead for Indian Refiners
Experts point out a critical distinction: unlike Iranian or Venezuelan oil, Russian crude itself is not under blanket US sanctions. The restrictions target specific companies. This means Indian refiners can legally continue purchases if they ensure the oil is not sourced from sanctioned entities and all documentation is in order.
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling at Kpler, notes that the December import drop only tells part of the story. "Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows into India are increasingly being rerouted through a growing web of intermediaries, traders, and logistical workarounds," he said. Ritolia expects Russian barrels to retain a structural presence in India's crude mix due to favorable pricing, refinery compatibility, and a lack of immediate alternatives.
The threat of secondary US sanctions, however, looms large. These sanctions aim to limit engagements of non-US countries with targeted entities, which is why India typically exercises caution despite its political opposition to unilateral sanctions.
There are also signs of a gradual recovery. As of December 30, 2025, Russian oil loadings for Indian ports were at 1.3 million bpd, down 12.3% from November. Furthermore, analysts suggest the December data may be revised upward. Many tankers left Russian ports without declaring a final destination, a pattern that has historically seen cargoes eventually update their discharge point to India mid-voyage.
The evolving scenario underscores the adaptability of global oil trade networks. As long as the US does not target the new intermediaries or Indian buyers with secondary sanctions, the supply chains are likely to re-stabilize, ensuring Russian oil continues to find a major market in India.
