The Kremlin has asserted that India maintains the sovereign right to purchase oil from any nation it chooses, responding to recent claims by US President Donald Trump regarding a shift in energy procurement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that India's strategy of diversifying its crude oil suppliers is not a new development, countering Trump's assertion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt purchases of Russian oil.
Russia's Response to Trump's Claims
In a statement reported by news agency PTI, Peskov clarified that Russia, along with international energy experts, recognizes that India has consistently sourced oil and petroleum products from multiple countries beyond Russia. "We see nothing new here," Peskov remarked, highlighting India's longstanding practice of maintaining diverse energy partnerships. This response came after Trump claimed that Modi had agreed to redirect oil purchases from Russia to the United States and potentially Venezuela.
Peskov further noted that Russia has not received any official communication from India regarding a cessation of Russian oil imports. This aligns with reports from Kommersant FM, which indicated that Modi did not reference any specific agreement to end Russian oil imports during discussions.
Expert Analysis on Oil Imports
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund, explained to PTI that Indian refiners face significant challenges in completely replacing Russian crude. He pointed out that US shale oil exports consist of light grades, whereas Russia supplies Urals crude, which differs in composition. This disparity necessitates blending with other grades, thereby increasing operational costs for Indian refineries.
Yushkov underscored the volume of trade involved, stating, "Russia typically exports 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day to India. America won't be able to cover that volume." He suggested that Trump's claims might be an attempt to portray the trade negotiations as favorable to US demands, rather than reflecting a substantive shift in India's energy policy.
Historical Context and Recent Trends
Following Western countries' cessation of Russian oil purchases after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India emerged as the largest buyer of Russian crude. Prior to 2021, Russian oil constituted a mere 0.2% of India's crude imports. However, this figure surged as India capitalized on discounted Russian oil, addressing its dependency on imports for approximately 88% of its crude oil needs.
Recent data from real-time analytics company Kpler indicates a decline in India's imports of Russian crude, dropping to around 1.1 million barrels per day in the first three weeks of January from 1.21 million bpd in the previous month and over 2 million bpd in mid-2025. This fluctuation reflects the dynamic nature of global oil markets and India's adaptive procurement strategies.
Trade Tensions and Tariffs
The backdrop to these developments includes trade tensions between the US and India. Last year, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India, with 25% linked specifically to India's purchases of Russian energy. Yushkov recalled the 2022 scenario when Russia redirected oil exports to India from European and American markets, leading to a production cut of 1 million barrels per day. This adjustment drove global oil prices to USD 120 a barrel, contributing to record fuel prices in the US.
India's approach to energy security continues to balance economic considerations with geopolitical realities. The country's refiners remain reliant on Russian crude due to its cost-effectiveness and compatibility with existing infrastructure, even as they explore alternatives to mitigate risks associated with over-dependence on any single supplier.
