Sanctioned Oil Trade Expands Rapidly in Global Shadows
The global shadow fleet of oil tankers is experiencing explosive growth. This clandestine network operates outside Western sanctions, moving crude from countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Recent developments have brought this underground trade back into sharp focus.
Fleet Size Skyrockets by Over 3,300%
Maritime analytics firm Kpler reveals startling numbers. Their data shows the shadow fleet expanded from just 97 vessels in 2022 to approximately 3,313 ships by December 2025. This represents a staggering increase of 3,315%. These tankers now handle an estimated 18.5% of worldwide tanker capacity according to S&P Global.
These vessels employ sophisticated evasion tactics. They frequently change ship names and registration flags. Many turn off transponders to disappear from GPS satellite tracking. This makes detection extremely difficult for sanctions enforcement agencies.
Russia Drives Initial Expansion
The Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered this massive growth. Western sanctions on Russian oil transport prompted Moscow to develop its own dark fleet. Russia now dominates this shadowy network, accounting for more than half the tankers on S&P Global's list.
Kpler notes the shadow fleet moved about $100 billion worth of crude oil during 2025. This represents 6-7% of global oil flows. What began as isolated compliance breaches has transformed into a structural layer of international trade.
Understanding the Shadow and Grey Fleets
Analysts distinguish between two categories within this network. The dark fleet consists of vessels directly subject to US or European Union sanctions. The grey fleet includes ships not currently sanctioned but suspected of moving cargo to and from sanctioned nations.
These tankers typically operate with significant disadvantages. They tend to be much older than regular cargo ships. Many lack proper insurance coverage. Ownership structures remain deliberately opaque to prevent tracking.
Key Exporters and Their Methods
Russia remains the primary force behind sanctioned crude shipments. In November 2025 alone, Russia accounted for 63 million barrels of the 299 million barrels transported by the shadow fleet. Other significant exporters include Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Regulators have intensified scrutiny on opaque shipping networks. They focus particularly on high-risk regions including the Eastern Mediterranean, Gulf of Oman, and Black Sea. Despite this increased attention, the shadow fleet continues expanding.
Major Importers: China and India
While Russia and Iran dominate sanctioned crude sales, China and India emerge as primary buyers. During the final three months of 2025, these two Asian giants accounted for roughly one-fifth of all shadow fleet crude imports.
China represents the largest purchaser of Iranian oil. This crude reaches Chinese ports through complex transshipment operations. Ships carrying Iranian oil transfer their cargo to secondary vessels in Southeast Asian waters before continuing to China.
India's Changing Import Patterns
India plays a crucial role in this sanctioned trade. Kpler estimates that during 2024, 9.5% of Russian crude flowing to India traveled via shadow fleet vessels. However, recent developments show shifting patterns.
Following US tariff impositions in April, India has noticeably reduced Russian crude imports. Russia's share of Indian crude imports declined from 45% in July 2024 to 32% by December 2025. Indian refiners increasingly turn to Middle Eastern sources while trimming Russian purchases.
New European Union measures taking effect in 2026 will further complicate matters. These regulations tighten restrictions on fuels produced from Russian-origin crude. This puts a significant portion of Indian refined product exports to Europe at risk.
Future Outlook Remains Uncertain
The shadow fleet demonstrates remarkable resilience against enforcement pressure. Kpler describes it as operationally robust, supported by opaque ownership structures, permissive jurisdictions, and parallel service providers. When regulators close one corridor, alternative routes quickly emerge.
Experts predict limited dramatic changes for 2026. China's continued demand for sanctioned crude, combined with ongoing sanctions against Russia and Iran, suggests sustained shadow fleet operations. However, lifted sanctions on Venezuela might reduce absolute fleet numbers.
For India, the situation presents complex challenges. Complete abandonment of Russian crude seems unlikely, but further reductions appear probable to avoid additional US tariffs. The shadow fleet continues evolving, adapting to geopolitical pressures while supplying crucial energy resources to major economies.
