In a revealing glimpse into the strategic thinking behind the recent US intervention in Venezuela, President Donald Trump delivered a cryptic message to American oil executives roughly a month before the operation that captured strongman Nicolás Maduro. His instruction was simple yet loaded with implication: "Get ready."
The Oil-Focused Strategy Behind the Move
While President Trump did not disclose specific details of the military strikes on Caracas that occurred early on a Saturday in January 2026, nor did he seek advice on the concurrent investment plan, his hint underscores a core truth. Oil is central to his daring, high-risk decision to intervene in Venezuela. The administration's vision for the country's future is intrinsically tied to the willingness of major US energy corporations to pour billions of dollars into revitalising its crumbling oil infrastructure.
"We are going to be taking a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground," Trump declared at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago following the events. He outlined a plan where the world's largest US oil companies would fix the badly broken oil infrastructure and start generating revenue for the nation.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the administration's intent, stating they look forward to collaborating with American oil firms on new Venezuelan investments. Leading this effort on Trump's behalf are Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with correspondence with the companies already initiated.
Corporate Caution Amidst Political Upheaval
The market initially reacted with optimism. Shares of Chevron, the only major US oil company that maintained operations in Venezuela after the 2007 nationalisation, rose about 5%. Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips also saw gains. However, this enthusiasm is tempered by significant corporate caution.
Despite its unique position—having been in Venezuela for over a century and maintaining government relationships—Chevron has no immediate plans to significantly increase spending or production. People familiar with the matter state the company is wary of committing new capital until the country stabilises and critical commercial questions are resolved. Chevron has never advocated for regime change with the administration.
"Chevron remains focused on the safety and well-being of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets," a company spokesman said, adding they do not comment on commercial speculation.
The challenges are immense. Venezuela's government estimates its reserves at a staggering 300 billion barrels, potentially the largest on Earth. Yet, current output is a meagre 900,000 barrels per day, less than 1% of global daily consumption. Boosting this could improve Venezuela's economy, potentially stemming migrant flows to the US and helping keep energy prices low.
The High Stakes for Investment and Stability
Other US giants like ConocoPhillips and Exxon, whose assets were nationalised in the mid-2000s, have shown no signs of rushing back. ConocoPhillips called it premature to speculate, while Exxon did not comment. This lack of immediate corporate appetite poses a significant risk to the Trump administration's overhaul plans.
"If you’re going into Venezuela, you’ve got to have terms that you think are going to protect you from the Venezuelans and, frankly, protect you from a different administration in the U.S.," said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.
For Chevron, any major investment in Venezuela must compete with other global opportunities in its portfolio, including a generational oil discovery in Guyana. The company is also planning substantial spending in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico. Key considerations before investing include employee safety, contract sanctity under the rule of law, export capabilities, and the massive cost of infrastructure repair. Even with investment, a dramatic production increase could take years.
The White House remains publicly confident. "All of our oil companies are ready and willing to make big investments in Venezuela that will rebuild their oil infrastructure, which was destroyed by the illegitimate Maduro regime," said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers.
As Nicolás Maduro appeared in a US court on Monday, having declined a late-December offer for exile, the future of Venezuela's oil—and by extension, the success of a major pillar of Trump's intervention—rests not just on political change, but on the calculated decisions of corporate boardrooms thousands of miles away.
