Canada is bracing for an unprecedented surge in its undocumented immigrant population, driven by the impending expiry of millions of temporary work permits. A significant portion of those affected are expected to be Indian nationals, according to an analysis by an immigration expert.
Historic Wave of Permit Expiries
Kanwar Seirah, a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) with Sierah Immigration, has highlighted alarming data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). The figures show that approximately 1,053,000 work permits are set to expire by the end of 2025. This will be followed by another 927,000 expiries in 2026.
When a work permit expires, the holder loses their legal status in Canada unless they successfully obtain a new visa or achieve permanent residency. Seirah points out that recent policy changes by the Canadian government have made these pathways more restrictive, particularly for temporary foreign workers and international students.
"Canada has never faced such high numbers of people going out of status," Seirah reportedly stated. The scale is immense: the first quarter of 2026 alone could see nearly 315,000 permit expiries, creating a severe bottleneck in the immigration system. For context, the last quarter of 2025 witnessed over 291,000 expiries.
Conservative Estimate Points to Major Indian Diaspora Impact
By the middle of 2026, Seirah estimates that at least two million people in Canada could be living without legal status. He projects that Indian nationals will constitute roughly half of this staggering number. Seirah described this as a "very conservative estimate," noting that it does not fully account for expiring study permits and potential rejections of asylum applications.
The situation serves as a stark warning for individuals currently in Canada on temporary visas. Seirah emphasized that proactive planning and awareness are now more critical than ever. The confluence of expiring permits and tighter regulations may create an exceptionally difficult environment for temporary residents, with Indian nationals being particularly vulnerable.
Social Consequences Begin to Surface
The early effects of this growing undocumented population are already becoming visible in certain communities. Seirah reported that social issues are emerging in parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Brampton and Caledon. There have been reports of tent encampments appearing in wooded areas, providing shelter for those who have lost their legal status.
Kanwar Seirah's firm, Sierah Immigration, operates from Mississauga, Canada, and maintains several offices in Punjab, India, including in Jalandhar, Ludhiana, and Mohali. His insights are based on direct analysis of IRCC data and ongoing policy shifts. The next two years, he cautions, could redefine Canada's immigration landscape with unprecedented numbers of undocumented immigrants, urging all temporary residents to assess their options without delay.
