Delhi Braces for Extended Period of Hazardous Air
Residents of India's capital are facing another week of dangerously polluted air, with forecasts predicting the Air Quality Index (AQI) will oscillate between the 'Severe' and 'Very Poor' categories. This grim outlook comes despite a slight improvement observed on Friday, when the average AQI dropped to 387 ('Very Poor') from 404 ('Severe') recorded the previous day.
Pollution Sources and Changing Patterns
The contribution of stubble burning to Delhi's toxic air mix showed a significant shift. After peaking earlier in the week at nearly 22%, the contribution of farm fires to PM2.5 levels dropped to 8.54% on Friday, down from 12% on Thursday. However, this relief may be short-lived.
According to the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology's Decision Support System, the share of farm fires is expected to rise to approximately 16.36% on Saturday. Other significant contributors to Delhi's PM2.5 load included transport emissions at 19.88%, industrial emissions from Delhi and periphery at 3.75%, and residential emissions at 4.88%.
Neighboring areas also played a role, with locations like Jhajjar adding around 8.55% to Delhi's particulate matter pollution.
Weather Conditions and Regional Factors
Meteorological conditions continue to exacerbate the pollution crisis. Low temperatures and calm winds during this season effectively trap pollutants close to the surface, creating a toxic blanket over the city.
On Friday, the maximum temperature settled at 26.4°C, two notches below normal, while the minimum was 10.2°C, three notches below normal. The India Meteorological Department has predicted mainly clear skies with fog expected over the next six days.
Wind patterns showed west-southwesterly winds with speeds up to 15 kmph prevailing in the past 24 hours. For Saturday, surface winds are expected to be northwesterly, calm in the early morning, gradually increasing to 5 kmph and strengthening to about 12 kmph in the afternoon before slowing again at night.
Stubble Burning Incidents Across States
Satellite data revealed the ongoing challenge of agricultural fires across northern India. On Saturday alone, 1,022 stubble-burning incidents were recorded across six states:
- 606 in Madhya Pradesh
- 159 in Rajasthan
- 129 in Uttar Pradesh
- 104 in Punjab
- 24 in Haryana
No fire events were recorded in Delhi itself. The cumulative count between September 15 and November 14 has reached 16,024 fire incidents across the region.
Health Implications and Outlook
The Central Pollution Control Board classifies AQI between 301-400 as 'Very Poor' and 401-500 as 'Severe'. The 'Severe' category is known to affect healthy people and seriously impact those with existing diseases.
The IITM forecast stated clearly: "The air quality is likely to be in the 'Very Poor' category from November 15 to 17. The outlook for the subsequent six days indicates 'Very Poor' to 'Severe' conditions."
PM10 and PM2.5 remain the dominant pollutants according to CPCB monitoring, with the tiny PM2.5 particles being particularly dangerous as they can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream.
