India's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has shown a slight improvement from its recent low, but the progress remains modest. According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) 2024 data, the SRB stands at 918 girls per 1,000 boys for the period 2022-24, up from the low of 896 recorded in 2015-17. However, this figure is still far below the biologically expected level.
Understanding the Natural Sex Ratio
The World Health Organization (WHO) reports sex ratio at birth as the number of male births per female births. The commonly observed natural level is about 105 boys for every 100 girls, which translates to roughly 952 girls per 1,000 boys. A slight excess of boys at birth is normal because male infants are biologically more vulnerable, so nature appears to build in a small cushion to compensate for higher male mortality in infancy.
Distinguishing SRB from Other Ratios
It is important not to confuse the sex ratio at birth with the overall sex ratio or the child sex ratio. The SRB measures births in a recent period, while the child sex ratio reflects both births and survival among children. The overall sex ratio, on the other hand, reflects the entire population, accounting for age and sex distribution. Additionally, since the SRS is sample-based, the most reliable interpretation comes from broad three-year averages and longer trends rather than tiny year-to-year movements, especially in smaller states and union territories.
Long-Term Trends and Regional Disparities
The worrying message from the data is that while India has improved from its worst point, after nearly two decades, the national SRB is only four points better than the 2005-07 level. Moreover, the rural number is actually worse than before. Urban India, once perceived as more prone to sex selection, now reports a better SRB than rural India. This suggests that the missing girls problem has eased slightly but has not ended.
Implications of Falling Fertility Rates
With falling fertility rates and smaller families, some states may see a rise in 'son-only' families, where parents continue to prefer sons despite having fewer children. This trend could exacerbate the gender imbalance in certain regions. The data underscores the need for continued efforts to address gender discrimination and promote the value of the girl child.
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