India and Bangladesh have initiated crucial negotiations to renew the Ganga Water Treaty, a pivotal agreement set to expire in December 2026. This comes amid a period of recalibrated bilateral ties following political changes in Dhaka. The core challenge for both nations is to forge a new pact that honors historical commitments while adapting to contemporary hydrological shifts, developmental demands, and the looming uncertainties of climate change.
The Legacy of the 1996 Treaty and Its Provisions
The Ganga Water Treaty was signed on December 12, 1996, by then Indian Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. This 30-year agreement was designed to resolve long-standing disputes over water sharing, primarily stemming from India's construction of the Farakka Barrage in 1975. The barrage, located just 10 km from the border, was built to divert water to the Hooghly River to maintain the navigability of the Kolkata port (now Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port), raising immediate concerns in Bangladesh about reduced flows.
The treaty's formula is based on historical flow data from 1949 to 1988 and applies during the dry season from January 1 to May 31. Its key provisions are:
- If the flow at Farakka is 70,000 cusecs or less, water is divided equally (50:50).
- If the flow is between 70,000-75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh receives a fixed 35,000 cusecs.
- If the flow exceeds 75,000 cusecs, India gets 40,000 cusecs, with the remainder flowing to Bangladesh.
The treaty also mandates that from March 11 to May 11, both countries receive 35,000 cusecs in alternate ten-day periods. A critical clause requires immediate consultations if the flow dips below 50,000 cusecs. Monitoring and implementation fall under the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972, which oversees all 54 shared rivers between the two countries.
Diverging Demands and Treaty Limitations
As formal renewal talks approach, both sides have outlined concerns reflecting changed circumstances. Bangladesh argues that the treaty's reliance on outdated flow data no longer matches current hydrological realities. It highlights that it has not always received its allocated share during lean periods and points to the absence of a 'minimum guaranteed flow' clause as a major limitation. Given its heavy dependence on the Ganga (Padma) for agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water, Dhaka seeks a longer-term treaty with guaranteed flows, especially during the critical February-May period, and more extensive data sharing.
India, as the upper riparian, prefers a shorter renewal period of 10-15 years. This flexibility, New Delhi argues, is necessary to align with its own evolving developmental needs—including water for drinking, irrigation, industry, and port operations—amid fluctuating water availability. The current treaty's narrow focus on the quantum of water at a single point (Farakka) is seen as inadequate for modern challenges.
The Case for a Basin-Centric Management Approach
Experts assert that renewing the treaty presents a vital opportunity to shift from a water-sharing to a river-basin management paradigm. The current pact does not account for upstream water use within India's portion of the basin, which constitutes about 79% of the total 1.08 million sq km Ganga Basin. This creates a mismatch between treaty commitments and on-ground water availability at Farakka.
A basin-centric approach would holistically address:
- Climate Change: Altered monsoon patterns, glacial retreat, and extreme weather events.
- Ecological Health: Maintaining environmental flows for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
- Growing Demands: Rising water needs for population, agriculture, and industry on both sides.
- Data Transparency: Implementing real-time flow monitoring and shared climate-resilient strategies for floods and droughts.
Such an approach would treat the Ganga not merely as a water resource to be divided but as a shared ecological system whose health is vital for both nations' futures. It would help mitigate shared climate threats while securing national interests through enhanced regional cooperation.
The renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty is more than a diplomatic exercise; it is a test of foresight for India and Bangladesh. Embracing a comprehensive, basin-wide framework could set a global precedent for managing transboundary rivers in the 21st century, balancing equity, sustainability, and mutual prosperity.
