The dramatic capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces has not led to a collapse of his regime. Instead, real power now firmly rests with two men who control the country's armed forces: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. While Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been named the de facto leader, analysts say it is Cabello and Padrino who command the loyalty of people with guns, making them the ultimate arbiters of Venezuela's future.
The Men With Guns: Who Holds Real Power?
When Vice President Delcy Rodríguez publicly condemned the U.S. operation that seized Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on January 5, 2026, she was flanked by Cabello and Padrino. This visual underscored a critical reality. Cabello commands the national police and paramilitary units, while Padrino has led the Venezuelan military since 2014. These are the forces that sustained Maduro's rule for over a decade through crackdowns on dissent.
Former U.S. diplomat Brian Naranjo, who served in Venezuela, stated bluntly that these two "could very easily take action against her and sideline her immediately." He emphasized, "Those are the two guys who control Venezuela right now. These are the guys who command people with guns." Their continued hold on power is why many Venezuelans, despite widely despising Maduro, have not celebrated his downfall. "People are still terrified because they are still in charge," said security consultant Douglas Farah.
A Wild Card for Trump's Strategy
U.S. President Donald Trump has bet that the remnants of the regime will cooperate to avoid Maduro's fate. However, Cabello and Padrino represent a significant wild card in this calculation. Both have been indicted in the U.S. on drug smuggling charges, with a $25 million reward for Cabello and $15 million for Padrino. They are accused of leading the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), a drug network of senior military officials labeled a foreign-terrorist organization by the Trump administration.
For now, they appear to be cooperating after the U.S. strike that dismantled Maduro's security apparatus. But their motivations are rooted in survival. "They're humiliated by the paper tiger that is the Venezuelan military," said Juan Cruz, a former National Security Council official. "They are still in power. The cupola is intact. But they don't sleep at night." Their role will determine if Venezuela maintains stability or descends into chaos, especially with armed Colombian guerrilla groups operating in the country.
Contrasting Paths to Power
The two power brokers have different backgrounds but converged in support of the socialist regime. Diosdado Cabello, 63, was an early follower of the late Hugo Chávez and was jailed after his failed 1992 coup. Seen as Maduro's enforcer, he is known for his fiery anti-U.S. rants on his state TV show. He oversees the notorious paramilitary "colectivos" and has been accused by Chilean prosecutors of masterminding a 2024 kidnapping and murder of an exiled dissident.
Vladimir Padrino, a four-star general named after Vladimir Lenin, allied with Chávez only after he took power in 1999. Padrino received infantry training at Fort Benning, Georgia, in the U.S., which he said taught him about "the monster in its entrails." As military chief, he kept the ranks loyal during coup attempts. Analysts note he has closer ties to Cuba and Russia, with Russian intelligence reportedly supporting his control over the armed forces. Under his watch, the military expanded into illegal mining and drug trafficking, using illicit profits to maintain loyalty as the economy collapsed.
The future of Venezuela, including whether the regime complies with U.S. demands for access to its vast oil wealth, now hinges on these two figures. While President Trump has threatened a larger attack if they rebel, their control over the nation's coercive apparatus makes them the most pivotal players in the country's uncertain new chapter.
