Assam Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates: The high-stakes Assam Assembly elections concluded on April 9, drawing to a close an intense campaign season marked by aggressive pitches and sharp attacks from all major parties. With voting now over, attention has shifted to voter turnout trends and the eventual outcome, scheduled for announcement on May 4.
When Are Exit Polls Released?
Exit polls are typically released 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase of an election. For the current assembly elections, projections are expected to start coming in after 6:30 pm, as per Election Commission rules. The restriction is enforced under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to prevent any influence on voter behavior while polling is still underway. Publishing or broadcasting exit polls before the permitted time is prohibited and can attract legal action.
When Will the 2026 Assembly Election Results Be Declared?
Counting of votes for the Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry will take place on May 4. The results for all five states will be announced the same day.
High-Stakes Contest Across 126 Seats
The elections to Assam’s 126-member Assembly featured a direct contest between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led opposition alliance in most constituencies. The BJP is aiming for a third consecutive term, while the Congress seeks to reclaim power after its defeat in 2016. A total of 722 candidates are contesting, including Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi, Leader of Opposition Debabrata Saikia, AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi, and AJP president Lurinjyoti Gogoi.
The Congress has fielded the highest number of candidates at 99, followed by the BJP with 90. The AIUDF has put up 30 candidates, while NDA allies Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) are contesting 26 and 11 seats respectively. In the opposition space, Raijor Dal is contesting 13 seats, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) 10, CPI(M) 3, and APHLC 2. Other parties in the fray include AAP (18), UPPL (18), TMC (22), JMM (16), along with 258 Independent candidates.
Algapur-Katlicherra and Karimganj South have the highest number of candidates at 15 each, making them among the most crowded contests. In contrast, nine constituencies—including Rangia, Jagiroad (SC), Hojai, Naduar, Jonai (ST), Doomdooma, Mahmora, Teok, and Lakhipur—have only two candidates each. Out of the total contestants, 59 are women. The Congress has fielded the highest number of women candidates at 14, followed by the BJP with seven.
Candidate Exit Drama Adds Twist
Ahead of the polls, the Congress received a boost with former AGP leader Jayanta Khaound joining the party along with his supporters. Welcoming him, Assam Congress chief Gaurav Gogoi said the move reflects growing public discontent against the leadership of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Gogoi alleged that a wave of political change is building in the state and claimed many leaders in the ruling camp feel constrained under the current leadership.
In a last-minute development, Congress candidate Suren Daimari announced he had quit the party and surrendered his candidature. However, officials clarified that his name would remain on the EVM as the withdrawal deadline had passed. Daimari said, There is no benefit of being in the Congress. It has betrayed me, and alleged that the party does not adequately represent Scheduled Tribes.
Voter Turnout Nears 86%; Central Assam Sees Sharpest Rise
Assam recorded a sharp rise in voter participation in the 2026 assembly elections, with turnout climbing to 85.9% in the latest update by the Election Commission of India. This is the highest turnout in the state’s history, surpassing 84.67% in 2016 and 82.04% in 2021. However, the increase was not uniform across regions. The strongest surge was seen in central Assam. Although it has fewer seats than lower or upper Assam, the jump in turnout here is politically significant and could influence the overall outcome.
Lower Assam, excluding the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR), holds the largest share of seats in the state. A roughly four-percentage-point rise in turnout here carries the biggest numerical impact and could play a decisive role in determining the balance of power. The BTR also recorded a notable increase. With 15 seats, even a moderate rise in turnout can affect coalition equations, and the four-point jump suggests consolidation among local political forces.
North Bank saw moderate growth, while upper Assam, despite having one of the highest seat counts, recorded the lowest increase in turnout. The hill districts, which have a smaller number of seats, also saw limited growth. In the state’s Muslim-majority belt, comprising 10 districts, turnout rose by an average of 4.7 percentage points compared to 2021. Sribhumi district recorded the sharpest increase, followed by Darrang and Morigaon, with Barpeta also showing strong gains. Bongaigaon and Dhubri posted solid improvements, with Dhubri’s rise being especially significant given its large electorate. Nagaon also saw an important increase, as it remains a politically sensitive district. In contrast, Goalpara and South Salmara registered moderate growth, while Hailakandi saw little to no change in voter turnout.
What Exactly Are Exit Polls?
Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted with voters as they leave polling booths. They use statistical sampling to estimate likely election outcomes based on voter responses. Unlike opinion polls, which measure public mood before voting, exit polls are based on actual voters. However, their accuracy can vary depending on sample size. Exit polls are usually released 30 minutes after polling ends in the final phase of an election. For the current assembly elections, projections are expected to start after 6:30 pm, as per Election Commission rules. The restriction is meant to ensure that voter behavior is not influenced while polling is still underway. The Election Commission of India enforces this rule under Section 126A of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.
