In a political earthquake that reshaped Bihar's landscape, the National Democratic Alliance has secured a monumental victory in the 2025 state assembly elections, capturing an unprecedented 206 seats in the 243-member house. While most exit polls had predicted the coalition's return to power, none foresaw the massive scale of this triumph.
Exit Polls Versus Ground Reality
Leading polling agencies failed spectacularly in gauging the depth of NDA's support across Bihar. Axis My India had projected the alliance would secure between 121 to 141 seats, while Today's Chanakya offered a more optimistic estimate of 160 seats with a margin of error. Other prominent agencies including Matrize, People's Pulse, JVC, DVC Research, Polstrat and People's Insight all placed NDA's potential tally between the mid-130s and mid-150s.
The collective failure becomes even more apparent when considering that a poll of polls offered an averaged estimate of 148 seats for NDA - nearly 60 seats less than the actual count of 206. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan opposition alliance was projected to secure between 70 to 118 seats across various surveys.
Bihar's History of Defying Exit Polls
This isn't the first time that Bihar's voters have proven pollsters wrong. In the 2020 elections, most exit polls predicted a clear victory for the Mahagathbandhan, but the final results showed NDA crossing the majority mark with 125 seats while the opposition alliance managed only 110.
The pattern extends further back to the 2015 elections, when most polls predicted a comfortable 155-seat win for NDA while projecting just 83 seats for the Mahagathbandhan. The actual results completely reversed these expectations, with the Mahagathbandhan sweeping the state with 178 seats and NDA managing only 58.
What This Means for Future Elections
The 2025 results reinforce Bihar's reputation as one of India's most unpredictable political battlegrounds. While pollsters correctly identified the winning alliance in all three recent elections, they consistently failed to measure the magnitude of voter sentiment accurately.
The massive gap between projections and actual results raises serious questions about the reliability of exit polling methodologies in capturing Bihar's complex social dynamics and political undercurrents. As political analysts examine this historic victory, one thing becomes clear: when it comes to Bihar elections, expect the unexpected.
