Bihar Awaits Verdict: All Eyes on Tarapur and Lakhisarai Seats
The political fate of Bihar hangs in the balance as the Election Commission of India (ECI) is set to begin counting votes at 8:00 am on Friday. The entire state is watching with bated breath as the results will determine the candidate choice from the crucial Tarapur and Lakhisarai seats, with early trends expected by noon and a final announcement likely by evening.
NDA's Confidence vs. MGB's Challenge
The electoral battle in Bihar is a direct contest between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB). To form the government, the NDA needs to secure a majority of 122 seats in the 243-member assembly. Voting for this high-stakes election was conducted in two phases, with the first phase across 121 constituencies on November 6 and the second phase for the remaining 122 seats on November 11.
Neck-and-Neck Battle in Tarapur
All attention is focused on the Tarapur seat in Munger district, where Bihar Deputy Chief Minister and BJP candidate Samrat Choudhary is locked in a tight race. The 56-year-old leader, currently a member of the Legislative Council, expressed unwavering confidence that the NDA will return to power with a thumping majority and that Nitish Kumar will remain 'mukhiya'.
He faces a formidable challenge from RJD's Arun Kumar Shah, BSP's Ashish Anand, and JSP's Santosh Kumar Singh. This constituency has been held by the Janata Dal (United) since 2010, adding another layer of intrigue to this closely watched contest.
High-Stakes Contest in Lakhisarai
In the Lakhisarai constituency, another Deputy Chief Minister, BJP's Vijay Kumar Sinha, is fighting to retain his seat. The 58-year-old incumbent, who has been a member of the Bihar Legislative Assembly from Lakhisarai since 2005, is pitted against Congress' Amresh Kumar, BSP's Praval Kumar, and JSP's Suraj Kumar.
Following the second phase of voting, Sinha declared that Bihar has rejected the politics of nepotism and dynasty. Exuding confidence in his party's victory, he stated, This is an exit poll; we will go even higher in the exact poll. Sinha previously served as the Speaker of the Bihar Legislative Assembly from November 2020 to August 2022 before resigning following a no-confidence motion.
Record Voter Turnout and Exit Poll Predictions
This year's election saw a historic voter turnout of 67.13%, the highest-ever recorded in the state. A total of 74.2 million voters were featured in the electoral rolls, comprising 39.2 million men and 35 million women. Notably, women's voter turnout was significantly higher at 71.78%, compared to 62.98% among men.
Almost all exit polls, including those from Axis My India and Today's Chanakya, have predicted a clean sweep for the NDA, suggesting the alliance would defy the anti-incumbency of over two decades. The pollsters forecast that the NDA led by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will secure a majority of seats and retain power in the state by defeating the MGB alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress.
Chief Minister Face and 2020 Context
The question of who will be the chief ministerial face remains pivotal. After casting his vote, Samrat Chaudhary emphasized the need for continuity, stating, NDA is coming to power with a thumping majority... In Bihar, a good government should be formed, and the work done by Nitish Kumar should continue. Bihar was transformed through a lot of hard work.
While RJD's Tejashwi Yadav emerged as a preferred choice in several polls, the visibility of Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) leader Prashant Kishor remained limited in leadership-preference surveys. The 2020 assembly polls provide important context, where the NDA secured a landslide victory with 125 seats—the JDU won 43 and the BJP bagged 74—while the opposition MGB won 110 seats.
As the counting begins, the political future of Bihar rests on the verdict from these key constituencies, setting the stage for a dramatic conclusion to this fiercely contested election.
