As the final votes are cast in Bihar's crucial second-phase assembly elections, all eyes turn to the exit poll predictions scheduled for release starting 6:30 PM today. These surveys, conducted by leading polling agencies, aim to capture the immediate voter sentiment and provide early indications of the electoral outcome.
What to Expect from Today's Exit Polls
Polling agencies including Today's Chanakya, Axis My India, CVoter, CSDS, and Times Now will present their seat projections for the 243-member Bihar assembly once voting concludes at 6 PM. The predictions stem from direct voter feedback collected outside polling stations across the state.
Bihar completed its two-phase voting process on November 6 and November 11, with the actual counting of votes and final results scheduled for November 14. While exit polls generate significant public interest, historical data reveals they have frequently missed the mark in predicting Bihar's complex political landscape.
Historical Accuracy: A Checkered Past
The track record of exit polls in Bihar shows consistent inaccuracies that voters should consider when analyzing today's projections.
2020 Elections: Major Miscalculations
In the 2020 assembly elections, an average of 11 exit polls collectively predicted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, projecting 125 seats - exactly the majority mark in the 243-seat assembly. The surveys gave the JD(U)-led NDA only 108 seats.
However, the actual results told a different story. The NDA secured 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan managed only 110 seats. This represented a significant 17-seat underestimation for the NDA and a 15-seat overestimation for the Mahagathbandhan across exit polls.
Among the agencies, Patriotic Voter, P-Marq and ABP News-CVoter came closest to the actual outcome, while News 18-Today's Chanakya proved most inaccurate with its projection of just 55 seats for NDA and 180 for Mahagathbandhan.
2015 Elections: Even Greater Discrepancies
The 2015 elections demonstrated even more dramatic polling failures. An average of six exit polls predicted a narrow Mahagathbandhan victory with 122 seats, while giving the BJP-led NDA 114 seats.
The reality proved substantially different. The RJD-JD(U)-Congress Grand Alliance won a commanding 178 seats, while the NDA collapsed to just 58 seats. Exit polls had underestimated the Mahagathbandhan's performance by 56 seats and overestimated the NDA's showing by the same margin.
Only CNN IBN-Axis came close to the actual result, predicting 176 seats for the winning alliance.
Understanding the Exit Poll Process
Exit polls differ significantly from pre-election surveys as they capture voter sentiment immediately after casting ballots. Agencies deploy field workers outside randomly selected polling stations to interview voters departing after voting.
The methodology involves structured questionnaires that typically ask about voting choices, demographic information, and reasons behind voter decisions. This immediate feedback is considered more reliable than pre-poll surveys since respondents have already exercised their franchise.
However, multiple factors can affect accuracy, including respondent truthfulness, sampling errors, last-minute voting changes, and the complex caste and community dynamics unique to Bihar politics.
Readers can track all exit poll projections, detailed analysis, and expert interpretations on LiveMint as agencies release their findings starting 6:30 PM. The predictions will be broadcast across television news channels, pollster websites, and their social media platforms.
As political enthusiasts await these preliminary indications, the historical pattern serves as a crucial reminder: exit polls provide interesting insights but the definitive verdict comes only on November 14 when votes are officially counted.
