Bihar Awaits Verdict: Exit Polls Project NDA Triumph in 2025 Elections
As the counting of votes for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 is set to begin in a few hours, a series of exit polls have forecasted a massive victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The coalition, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is projected to secure a comfortable majority, leaving the opposition Mahagathbandhan, or INDIA bloc, significantly behind.
This prediction follows a historic voter turnout across the state, setting the stage for a decisive political outcome. While the NDA appears poised to form the government, a fascinating contradiction emerges in the choice for the state's top executive.
Decoding the Exit Poll Numbers
Several major polling agencies have released their projections, and the consensus strongly favors the incumbent alliance. The majority mark in the 243-seat Bihar assembly is 122 seats.
- Axis My India: Predicts 121-141 seats for the NDA and 98-118 for the Mahagathbandhan.
- Today's Chanakya: Forecasts an even stronger performance for the NDA, with 148-172 seats, against 65-89 for the MGB.
- Dainik Bhaskar: Projects the NDA to win 145–160 seats.
- Other agencies like Matrize, People's Insight, People's Pulse, and DVC Research have all projected the NDA to cross the majority mark comfortably, with seat counts ranging from the 130s to the 160s.
The Tejashwi Paradox: Preferred CM Despite Alliance Defeat
In a surprising twist, the exit poll by Axis My India revealed that Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD is the preferred choice for Chief Minister among voters. He captured 34% support in the survey, significantly ahead of the current CM, Nitish Kumar, who secured 22%. This indicates a complex voter sentiment where leadership preference does not directly translate into alliance-level support.
A Lone Dissenting Voice and Historical Inaccuracies
Amid the overwhelming predictions for an NDA win, one pollster, Journo Mirror, broke from the trend. The local news portal predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan, projecting the INDIA bloc to win 130-140 seats. This outlier serves as a reminder of exit polls' volatile nature.
Historically, exit polls in Bihar have not always been accurate. In the 2020 elections, they incorrectly predicted a narrow victory for the Mahagathbandhan. Similarly, in 2015, pollsters failed to accurately predict the success of the then Grand Alliance of JD(U) and RJD.
Political Reactions and the Road Ahead
Reactions from political leaders have been swift and divided. BJP MP Dinesh Sharma welcomed the exit poll predictions, stating that the “clean-up” of the RJD and the Congress from Bihar had begun.
In contrast, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav firmly rejected the projections. He asserted that he neither lives in false optimism nor in misunderstanding, expressing confidence in the Mahagathbandhan's performance despite the polls.
All eyes are now on the actual counting process, which will reveal whether the exit polls have correctly captured the public's mandate or if Bihar's electorate has another surprise in store.
