Two major exit polls released on Wednesday have projected a clear victory for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance in the Bihar assembly elections, with the opposition Mahagathbandhan falling significantly short of the majority mark.
Divergent Projections But Same Outcome
While both polling agencies predicted the ruling coalition's return to power, they presented varying margins of victory. Axis My India (AMI) forecast a tighter contest, projecting 121-141 seats for the NDA with 43% vote share, while giving the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan 98-118 seats with 41% vote share.
In contrast, Today's Chanakya presented a more decisive victory for the ruling alliance, predicting 160 seats (+/-12) with 44% vote share for the NDA, and only 77 seats (+/-13) with 38% votes for the Mahagathbandhan.
Poll of Polls Consolidates NDA Advantage
A comprehensive poll of polls conducted on Tuesday reinforced the NDA's favorable position, indicating the alliance could secure around 148 seats in the 243-member assembly. The Mahagathbandhan, despite campaigning as the agent of change, is projected to win approximately 88 seats, with others expected to secure about 7 seats.
Several other polling agencies echoed similar predictions:
- The People's Pulse: NDA 133-159 seats, Mahagathbandhan 75-101 seats
- Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145-160 seats, Mahagathbandhan 73-91 seats
- JVC-Polls: NDA 135-150 seats, Mahagathbandhan 88-103 seats
- Matrize: NDA 147-167 seats, Mahagathbandhan 70-90 seats
- People's Insight: NDA 133-148 seats, Mahagathbandhan 87-102 seats
Voter Turnout and Historical Context
Bihar recorded an impressive 68.52% voter turnout in the second phase of assembly elections as of 5 pm on Tuesday, according to the Election Commission. This marked an increase from the first phase, which had recorded 65.08% turnout.
The high participation rate has been claimed as a positive indicator by all major political blocs, though the exit poll results suggest it may have worked in the NDA's favor.
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the NDA had secured 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan won 110 seats. Among major parties, the JD(U) won 43 seats, BJP 74, RJD secured 75 seats, and Congress 19.
The 2025 election results, if the exit polls prove accurate, would represent a strengthened position for the NDA compared to their 2020 performance.
