With the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 approaching, political analysts and voters are looking back at the performance of exit polls in previous elections. A detailed examination of the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections reveals a consistent pattern: exit poll predictions significantly diverged from the actual results both times.
The 2015 Bihar Assembly Elections
During the 2015 Bihar elections, numerous media outlets and polling agencies conducted extensive exit polls across the state's 243 constituencies. These surveys attempted to gauge voter sentiment immediately after voting concluded. However, when the actual results were declared, the predictions proved to be substantially inaccurate.
The Grand Alliance, comprising JD(U), RJD, and Congress, secured a decisive victory that many exit polls had not accurately projected. The margin of error in seat share predictions was particularly notable, with some polls overestimating support for certain political formations while underestimating others.
The 2020 Repeat Performance
Five years later, during the 2020 Bihar Assembly Elections, history repeated itself. Despite advancements in polling methodology and increased sample sizes, exit polls once again failed to accurately predict the final outcome.
The NDA coalition, led by the BJP and JD(U), managed to secure a majority, though the actual seat distribution differed markedly from what most exit polls had forecasted. The predictions showed considerable variation among different polling agencies, with some coming closer to the final results than others, but none achieving complete accuracy.
What This Means for 2025
As Bihar prepares for another crucial assembly election in 2025, the track record of exit polls raises important questions about their reliability. Political observers note that Bihar's complex social fabric, comprising numerous caste groups and regional variations, presents unique challenges for pollsters.
The discrepancy between exit poll predictions and actual results in both 2015 and 2020 suggests that voters in Bihar may be particularly strategic or that last-minute decisions play a significant role in determining outcomes. Additionally, the phenomenon of silent voters—those who do not reveal their true voting intentions—appears to be particularly pronounced in Bihar's political landscape.
With the upcoming 2025 elections, all eyes will be on whether polling agencies can improve their methodologies to provide more accurate predictions, or if Bihar will continue to defy exit poll projections.
