Kerala Gears Up for Crucial Local Body Elections in December
The political landscape in Kerala is set for a significant test as the State Election Commission has announced that local body elections will be conducted across the state in two phases on December 9 and December 11, 2024. The counting of votes and declaration of results will take place on December 13, according to State Election Commissioner A Shajahan.
With the announcement of the election schedule, the Model Code of Conduct has immediately come into effect across Kerala. The electoral exercise will cover an extensive 23,576 wards/divisions spread across various tiers of local self-government institutions, with a massive electorate of 2.84 crore voters eligible to cast their ballots.
Phased Polling Across Kerala's Districts
The election commission has strategically divided the polling across two dates to ensure smooth conduct of the electoral process. Seven districts located in southern and central Kerala will participate in the first phase of voting on December 9. The remaining seven districts will follow with their polling on December 11.
These local body elections encompass municipal corporations, municipalities, and the three-tier panchayat system comprising village panchayats, block panchayats, and district panchayats. The outcome is particularly significant as it serves as a crucial political barometer ahead of the Assembly elections scheduled for April-May 2026.
High Stakes for Ruling CPI(M) and Opposition Congress
The local body polls represent a critical battleground for both the ruling CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-headed United Democratic Front (UDF). Political analysts are viewing these elections as a virtual referendum on the performance of the incumbent LDF government and a preview of the upcoming Assembly elections.
In the previous local body elections held in 2020, the LDF had achieved remarkable success, which subsequently translated into a resounding victory in the 2021 Assembly elections, enabling the front to retain power for a second consecutive term.
The 2020 local body election results demonstrated the LDF's dominance across multiple levels of local governance:
- The Left front secured five out of six municipal corporations, while the UDF managed to win only one
- Among 86 municipalities, the UDF won 45 compared to LDF's 35, with BJP-led NDA winning two
- In 941 gram panchayats, the LDF emerged victorious in 514 against UDF's 377
- The Left made significant gains in district panchayats, winning 10 out of 14, a substantial improvement from the previous 7-7 split
- In block panchayats, the LDF dominated with 104 wins out of 152, leaving the UDF with just 44
Historical Patterns and Current Political Context
The 2020 local body election success marked a remarkable comeback for the LDF after its disappointing performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the front managed to win only one out of 20 parliamentary seats. Interestingly, the current local body elections are also being conducted in the aftermath of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which saw a similar pattern with the LDF securing just one seat.
Historical trends in Kerala politics reveal an intriguing pattern. In both the 2010 and 2015 civic body elections, the verdict went against the incumbent ruling front, and subsequently, the opposition emerged victorious in the Assembly elections of 2011 and 2016 respectively. This historical context adds immense significance to the upcoming local body polls.
If the LDF manages to replicate its 2020 performance and secure most of the local bodies, it would pose a serious challenge to the Congress-led UDF, which is making determined efforts to return to power in the 2026 Assembly elections.
BJP's Focus on Thiruvananthapuram Corporation
The Bharatiya Janata Party has identified the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation as a primary target in these elections. The party, which serves as the main opposition in the current corporation council, has already announced its first list of 67 candidates for the corporation elections.
Prominent candidates fielded by the BJP include former Director General of Police R Sreelekha and former athlete Padmini Thomas. Winning the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, which comprises 101 divisions, would provide a significant morale boost for the BJP ahead of the Assembly elections, particularly in constituencies like Nemom, Vattiyurkkavu, and Kazhakkoottam.
These urban Assembly segments fall within the municipal corporation area and have shown a strong inclination toward the BJP in recent elections. The party has maintained a substantial vote bank in this urban region since the 1980s, and its first-ever Assembly electoral victory in Kerala came from Nemom constituency in 2016, where veteran leader O Rajagopal was elected.
The upcoming local body elections in Kerala are not merely about grassroots governance but represent a critical political battle that could set the tone for the state's political direction in the coming years. With all major political parties gearing up for an intense campaign, the December polls promise to be a significant indicator of Kerala's political future.
