High-Stakes Battle in Raghopur Constituency
The Raghopur assembly seat is witnessing an intense triangular contest that has captured political attention across Bihar. The electoral battle pits Rashtriya Janata Dal's prominent leader Tejashwi Yadav against Bharatiya Janata Party's Satish Kumar and JanSuraaj party's Chanchal Kumar.
With polling now completed, the fate of these candidates rests securely in the electronic voting machines, awaiting the final count. Election officials confirmed that the constituency recorded a substantial voter turnout of 68.54 percent, reflecting the high public interest in this closely watched contest.
Poll Projections and Seat Forecasts
Multiple polling agencies released their final predictions on Tuesday, suggesting that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is positioned to return to power with approximately 148 seats. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, despite running an aggressive campaign focused on change and development, is projected to secure around 88 seats, while other smaller parties might obtain about 7 seats.
Detailed analysis from People's Pulse estimated the NDA could secure between 133-159 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan getting 75-101 seats. Their projection indicated Jan Suraaj might win 0-5 seats, while other parties could capture 2-8 constituencies.
The Dainik Bhaskar poll presented similar numbers, forecasting 145-160 seats for the NDA and 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan. This survey suggested that Jan Suraaj might not win any seats, while other parties could secure 5-10 constituencies.
Constituency Profile and Historical Context
Madhubani assembly constituency, which includes both urban areas and surrounding villages, presents a diverse demographic landscape. The electorate comprises Brahmins, Muslims, Yadavs, Kayasthas, and approximately 13% Scheduled Caste voters.
In the 2020 elections, the constituency had 3,46,962 registered electors with a turnout of 54.13 percent, resulting in 1,87,739 valid votes. RJD candidate Samir Kumar Mahaseth emerged victorious with 71,332 votes, defeating VIP's Suman Kumar Mahaseth who secured 64,518 votes - a margin of 6,814 votes.
The Election Commission reported that the second phase of polling across 122 constituencies recorded a 68.52 percent voter turnout as of 5 pm on Tuesday, indicating strong public participation in the democratic process.
Additional polling agencies including JVC-Polls, Matrize, and People's Insight provided similar projections, all pointing toward an NDA victory while highlighting the competitive nature of key constituencies like Raghopur where established political forces face new challengers.
