Bangladesh Election Polls: BNP Leads in Surveys, Jamaat-E-Islami in Close Race
As Bangladesh approaches its crucial national elections scheduled for February 12, three major pre-poll surveys have provided insights into the likely political outcome. The surveys indicate a clear electoral dominance by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led alliance in two studies, while the third suggests a closely fought contest between the BNP and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami alliance. This election poses a significant test for both alliances following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with voters poised to shape the country's future governance.
EASD Survey: BNP Commands Strong Lead
A comprehensive survey conducted by the Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) reveals that the BNP-led alliance is projected to win approximately 208 seats out of the 300 contested in the Bangladesh election. According to the Dhaka Tribune report, the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may secure 46 seats, with the Jatiya Party winning three seats, other parties four seats, and independent candidates 17 seats.
The survey results were based on opinions from around 41,500 respondents, comprising 26,560 men (64%) and 14,922 women (36%). A striking 66.3 percent of respondents expressed their intention to vote for the BNP, while Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 percent support. The National Citizen Party (NCP) received 1.7 percent support, the Jatiya Party secured 4 percent, and independent candidates accounted for 2.6 percent.
Notably, the BNP enjoys robust support among women voters, with 71.1 percent expressing backing for the party. The survey suggests a significant shift among former Awami League voters, with 80 percent indicating they would vote for the BNP in the upcoming election, and 15 percent favoring Jamaat-e-Islami, as stated by EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Hayder Talukdar.
IILD Survey: A Tight Electoral Contest
The opinion survey by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) presents a more competitive scenario. While the BNP-led alliance leads in overall vote share, the Jamaat-led electoral alliance is ahead in constituencies with assured victories. According to Prothomalo, the survey indicates that the Jamaat-led alliance could secure a definite victory in 105 constituencies, compared to 101 seats for the BNP-led alliance, with other parties potentially winning 19 seats.
The vote share projections show the BNP-led alliance at 44.1 percent and the Jamaat-led alliance of 11 political parties at 43.9 percent, highlighting a neck-and-neck race. The findings also point to a closely fought contest in 75 constituencies between candidates of the two major alliances. This survey included 63,115 voters nationwide, with 36,634 men (57.59%) and 26,981 women (42.41%).
NRC Poll: Reinforcing BNP's Advantage
A survey by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) reinforces the BNP's advantage, projecting that the party could secure 77 percent of the vote and win 220 seats. Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami is projected to win 57 seats, with the remaining seats distributed among smaller parties and independent candidates.
Bangladesh Elections in Brief
Bangladesh's national elections will be held on February 12, with results announced on February 13. The Jatiya Sangsad, or Parliament of Bangladesh, has 350 members, but only 300 are elected by the people for their respective constituencies. The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women and filled by a vote of the 300 members based on proportional representation. To form a government, a political party or coalition must win more than half of the 300 seats, which is 151 seats.
This year's contest is between two primary alliances: one led by the BNP, currently headed by former PM Khaleda Zia's son Tarique Rahman, and another tie-up between Jamaat and the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student leaders of the 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina, along with other Islamist parties. The election has become a bipolar contest as Hasina's Awami League party has been banned from participating in the national polls.
