Rajya Sabha Battle in Bihar: NDA Poised for Clean Sweep as RJD Faces Loss
Following the Election Commission's announcement of the schedule for biennial elections to five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar, intense lobbying for tickets has erupted within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Meanwhile, the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) appears to have limited scope to secure a berth in the Upper House of Parliament.
Political Calculations and Assembly Strength
Based on the current strength of parties in the Bihar legislative assembly, the Lalu Prasad-led RJD is set to lose both its sitting seats in the Rajya Sabha. The NDA, which presently holds three of the five seats, is in a strong position to win all five if it secures the backing of just three MLAs from smaller parties not aligned with the opposition.
Under the prevailing calculation for Rajya Sabha elections in the state, a candidate requires at least 41 votes to be elected. In the assembly election held in November last year, the NDA won 202 seats, while the RJD and its allies—Congress and the Left—were reduced to a combined total of 35 seats.
If the RJD-led Grand Alliance, with 35 MLAs, manages to gain support from five All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MLAs and the lone Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MLA, the opposition bloc could reach 41 and potentially win one seat. In that scenario, the NDA would still be positioned to secure four of the five seats.
Vacancies and Election Schedule
Five vacancies from Bihar will arise in the Rajya Sabha on April 9 following the retirement of Prem Chand Gupta and Amarendra Dhari Singh (both RJD), Union minister Ram Nath Thakur and Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson Harivansh Narayan Singh (both Janata Dal-United), and Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM).
As per the Election Commission notification, polling for the five seats will be held on March 16. The notification will be issued on February 26, and the last date for filing nominations is March 5. Counting, if required, will take place on the evening of March 16, exactly one hour after voting concludes.
NDA's Internal Dynamics and Candidate Speculation
NDA insiders revealed that the JD(U), with 85 MLAs, can comfortably retain its two seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with 89 MLAs, is expected to stake claim to two seats. The remaining seat, sources indicated, could go to the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Union minister Chirag Paswan.
Within the BJP, sources said the party may field Bhojpuri singer Pawan Singh as one of its candidates. The name of Nitin Nabin, the party's national working president and a sitting Bihar MLA, is also being actively discussed.
Nabin resigned from the Nitish Kumar cabinet in December soon after being appointed to the national post, but he continues to represent the Bankipur assembly seat. Political observers believe that given his expanded responsibilities, he may opt to vacate the constituency he has represented over multiple terms.
JD(U)'s Conundrum and Internal Policy
In the JD(U), sources said there is significant uncertainty over whether the party will repeat its candidates for a third consecutive term. Both sitting JD(U) Rajya Sabha members—Ram Nath Thakur, son of Bharat Ratna Karpoori Thakur, and Harivansh—are currently serving their second consecutive terms.
JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar had earlier denied a third consecutive term to RCP Singh, a former JD(U) national president, a decision that eventually led to Singh's exit from the Union cabinet. The party had then cited an internal policy of not granting Rajya Sabha berths to the same individual for more than two consecutive terms.
JD(U) functionaries remained guarded on whether an exception could be made this time, as strict adherence would displace two sitting MPs who currently hold significant constitutional positions.
Smaller Allies and Political Equations
The third NDA-held seat is with Upendra Kushwaha, who entered the Rajya Sabha in 2025 with BJP support in a by-election triggered after Vivek Thakur was elected to the Lok Sabha. Though Kushwaha's RLM is a smaller ally, NDA sources said he has already received his share, pointing to his son Deepak Prakash being inducted into the state cabinet despite not being a member of the legislature.
This political maneuvering highlights the complex calculations and intense negotiations underway as Bihar prepares for a crucial Rajya Sabha election that could reshape the state's representation in the Upper House of Parliament.
