NEW DELHI: Today's Chanakya exit poll on Thursday predicted a significant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal, while News18's exit poll forecast a close contest with a slight edge for the BJP. In Tamil Nadu, Today's Chanakya projected a majority for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and its allies, with actor Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerging as an X factor that could push the AIADMK-BJP alliance to third place.
West Bengal Projections
While most exit polls have given the BJP an advantage in West Bengal, Today's Chanakya has forecast a substantial lead for the party, estimating 48% of the vote share compared to the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC)'s 38%, with a margin of 3% for both parties on either side. This vote share would translate into 192 seats (plus or minus 11) for the BJP and 100 seats (plus or minus 11) for the TMC in the 294-member assembly. News18, on the other hand, predicted 143 to 163 seats for the BJP and 127 to 147 for the TMC, with the two parties expected to secure 44% and 43% of the votes, respectively.
Tamil Nadu and Other States
In Tamil Nadu, Today's Chanakya projected that the DMK-led alliance could win 125 seats, while TVK could secure 63 seats in the 234-member assembly. The pollster also gave an edge to the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and predicted a landslide victory for the BJP in Assam, forecasts that align with the general direction of other exit polls.
Axis My India, another polling agency, decided not to release its forecast for West Bengal due to an exceptionally high non-response rate, with approximately 70% of approached voters declining to participate in the survey. The agency stated, "A refusal rate of this magnitude materially exceeds historical norms and introduces a high degree of non-response bias."
