NEW DELHI: Exit poll projections for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) have raised one of the most intriguing questions of the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections: is Vijay on the verge of a breakthrough similar to Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, or will his debut resemble Prashant Kishor's Bihar experiment that fell from grace?
The answer, at least for now, depends on which exit poll one chooses to believe. Most projections place TVK in the 10–24 seat range, marking a significant debut. According to most pollsters, Vijay's party will be positioned as a spoiler rather than a main contender. P-Marq and Matrize projected 10–12 seats for TVK, while Peoples Pulse gives it a stronger 18–24, suggesting meaningful traction among urban and youth voters. In this scenario, Vijay's party could end up splitting anti-incumbent votes, indirectly aiding the DMK.
The Outlier Projection
However, an outlier emerges. Axis MyIndia projected a dramatic surge, giving TVK 98–120 seats—numbers that, if realized on May 4, would catapult Vijay into the center of Tamil Nadu politics overnight. That would place him in Kejriwal territory: a first-time entrant not just breaking through but becoming the central figure in state politics. Vijay also benefits from his superstar image as Thalaivar, a factor that has historically worked in Tamil Nadu with the rise of MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa.
Contrasting Political Landscapes
Unlike Delhi in 2013, where Kejriwal rode a singular anti-corruption wave, Tamil Nadu's contest is layered, entrenched in Dravidian politics, strong party machinery, and decades-old voter loyalties. Even a strong showing for TVK does not automatically translate into power unless it converts popularity into booth-level efficiency—an area where established players like the DMK and AIADMK retain a clear edge.
The Kishor Comparison
If these exit polls prove wrong on May 4 and Vijay's grand political debut becomes a flop show, it would resemble what we saw last year in Bihar. While there was much discussion around political mastermind Prashant Kishor's debut, his Jan Suraaj Party failed to open its account in assembly elections. The comparison with Kishor is instructive in another way: Kishor's Bihar push aimed to create an alternative political space but struggled to translate visibility into votes at scale. If TVK's performance remains in the lower range of projections, it may still succeed in altering vote shares and future alignments without immediately challenging for power.
The Verdict Awaits
So, is Vijay the next outsider who can convert momentum into a mandate, as Kejriwal once did? Or will he fail to make any impact, like Kishor's early political foray? The answer will only become clear on May 4.
