Maharashtra's Population Projected to Reach 12.93 Crore by March 2026
According to the latest Economic Survey 2025-26, Maharashtra's population is set to increase significantly from 11.24 crore recorded in the 2011 Census to a projected 12.93 crore as of March 1, 2026. This growth marks a new demographic phase for the state, characterized by a falling fertility rate and an ageing populace.
Key Demographic Shifts in Maharashtra
The survey highlights several critical changes in the state's population structure:
- The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is expected to decline from 26.7% in 2011 to 19.6% by 2026.
- The working-age population (15-59 years) is rising, from 63.3% in 2011 to 67.3% by 2026.
- The population aged 60 years and above will increase from 10% in 2011 to 13.1% in 2026, and further to 17.1% by 2036.
Fertility Rate Decline Below Replacement Level
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Maharashtra has shown a consistent downward trend:
- It fell from 1.77 during 2011-15 to a projected 1.56 for 2021-25.
- It is expected to stabilize at around 1.51 by 2031-35, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
In comparison, India's TFR for the corresponding period is projected at 1.9, indicating that Maharashtra's fertility rate is lower than the national average.
Urbanization and Population Density Trends
Maharashtra's urbanization rate stands at 45.2% as per the 2011 Census, significantly higher than India's overall rate of 31.1%. The urban population in the state, which came into existence in 1960, has risen every decade:
- From 28.2% in 1961 to 45.2% in 2011.
Population density in Maharashtra has also increased, from 365 persons per square km in 2011 to a projected 420 per square km by March 2026.
Maharashtra's Share in India's Population
As per the 2011 Census, Maharashtra accounted for 9.3% of India's total population of 121.09 crore. This significant share underscores the state's demographic importance in the country's overall population dynamics.
The Economic Survey 2025-26 provides a comprehensive overview of these trends, highlighting the need for policy adjustments to address the challenges and opportunities presented by Maharashtra's evolving demographic profile.
