In a significant political realignment ahead of the crucial Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray have decided to join forces. This unexpected reunion is poised to challenge the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) ambitions and has forced a strategic rethink just weeks before the polls scheduled for January 15.
A Strategic Alliance Forged
The formal announcement of the alliance between the Shiv Sena (UBT), led by Uddhav Thackeray, and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, was confirmed by Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut. The move marks the end of a nearly two-decade-long rivalry that began in 2006 when Raj left the undivided Shiv Sena. The alliance is strategically aimed at consolidating the Marathi-speaking vote bank, a core constituency for both leaders, and presenting a united front against the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition.
While Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has publicly downplayed the impact of this reunion, BJP insiders acknowledge that the party is actively working on "counter strategies." They admit that the BMC elections will no longer be a "cakewalk," despite the Mahayuti's dominant performance in the recent local body polls where it won 207 of 288 bodies.
The Electoral Arithmetic and Potential Impact
A detailed ward-wise analysis of the November 2024 Assembly election results reveals the potential clout of the Thackeray combine. The data shows that in 67 of Mumbai's 227 BMC wards (roughly 30%), the MNS polled more votes than the winner's victory margin. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) led in 39 of these wards, while the ruling Mahayuti was ahead in 28.
An alliance could allow the Sena (UBT) to not only solidify its position in the 39 MVA-leading wards but also potentially flip the 28 where Mahayuti was ahead. The MNS's influence is particularly strong in a Marathi-dominated belt covering areas like Worli, Dadar, Mahim, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, and Dindoshi-Malad. In these regions, MNS candidates previously secured one-third to half of the votes polled by MVA candidates.
This alliance is expected to force the BJP to depend more heavily on its ally, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, especially in municipal corporations with significant Marathi-speaking populations like BMC, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivali, Nashik, Pune, and Navi Mumbai.
Internal Opposition and Demographic Challenges
The Thackeray reunion has not been met with unanimous approval within the opposition ranks. The Congress, a key constituent of the MVA, was reportedly not keen on having the "hardline" MNS on board. Following the Mahayuti's assembly poll victory, AICC in-charge for Maharashtra Ramesh Chennithala stated the Congress would contest the BMC polls alone. However, state Congress chief Harshvardhan Sapkal adopted a more nuanced stance, emphasizing the party's inclusive politics while identifying the BJP as the main rival.
Demographically, the alliance targets a potent combination. Marathi speakers constitute around 26% of Mumbai's population, forming the Thackerays' traditional base. This is coupled with the potential support of the city's Muslim population (approximately 11%), which largely aligns with non-BJP forces. A section of the Dalit community (nearly 11%) is also not considered part of the BJP's core vote base.
The MNS's electoral journey has seen peaks and troughs. Its high point was the 2012 BMC polls where it won 27 seats. However, its tally fell to just seven in 2017, and the party drew a blank in the 2024 Assembly elections, securing only a 1.55% vote share. Despite this, Raj Thackeray's enduring charisma and strategic alliance-making keep the party politically relevant, often acting as a decisive "vote-cutter" in tight contests.
As Mumbai prepares for the high-stakes civic polls, the reunion of the Thackeray cousins has undeniably reshaped the political battlefield, setting the stage for a fiercely contested election where every ward and every vote will count.
