The Matrize exit poll for the 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections has projected a massive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), predicting the party will secure between 146 and 161 seats in the 294-member assembly. This forecast marks a significant setback for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is expected to win only 100 to 115 seats.
Key Projections
According to the Matrize survey, the BJP's vote share is estimated at 46.2%, while the TMC is projected to receive 38.5% of the votes. The Left Front and Congress alliance is expected to secure around 6.5% of the vote share. The poll indicates a clear anti-incumbency wave against the TMC government led by Mamata Banerjee.
Regional Breakdown
The exit poll suggests the BJP will dominate in southern and western Bengal, including districts like Howrah, Hooghly, and Burdwan, while the TMC may retain its stronghold in the northern districts and parts of Kolkata. The Matrize survey was conducted across all 294 constituencies, with a sample size of over 1.5 lakh voters.
Reactions from Parties
The BJP has welcomed the predictions, with state president Sukanta Majumdar stating that the results reflect the people's desire for change. Meanwhile, TMC spokesperson Kunal Ghosh dismissed the survey, calling it a 'paid propaganda' and expressed confidence in the party's performance.
Implications for 2026
If the exit poll holds true, the BJP would secure a comfortable majority, allowing it to form the next government in West Bengal for the first time. This would be a major shift in the state's political landscape, which has been dominated by the TMC since 2011. The final results are expected to be announced on May 2, 2026.
