In a significant assessment that has set the chess world abuzz, former world champion Magnus Carlsen has placed India's teenage grandmaster R Praggnanandhaa as the third favorite to win the prestigious Candidates tournament scheduled for March next year. The Norwegian legend, speaking in an interview with Chess.com after the Freestyle Tour in South Africa, outlined a clear hierarchy of contenders for the event that will decide the challenger to current world champion Gukesh Dommaraju.
Carlsen's Hierarchy of Favorites
Carlsen left little room for ambiguity in his predictions. He firmly positioned the two American powerhouses, Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura, as the frontrunners for the Candidates crown. Directly behind them, in his estimation, sits India's sole representative, R Praggnanandhaa.
"Just like last time, probably the Americans are the favorites. Then we got Pragg as the third favorite, and then probably a pretty big drop off after that," Carlsen stated candidly. His comments suggest a significant gap in winning potential between the top three and the rest of the eight-player field.
A Gloomy Forecast for the Other Contenders
The five-time world champion was less optimistic about the chances of the remaining five Candidates. While acknowledging Chinese Grandmaster Wei Yi as "really good," Carlsen expressed doubt about his capacity to secure enough victories in the double-round robin format to clinch the overall win. "I don’t think he’s capable of winning enough games to win the Candidates," he remarked.
Carlsen also voiced a slight disappointment with the final lineup, hinting at a desire for more established names. "I would have loved to see some more big names in the field, but then again, if you didn’t qualify, you didn’t qualify," he added, accepting the qualification process's outcome.
Notable Absences and the Qualification System
Expanding on his thoughts, Carlsen suggested that the current qualification system might need refinement to accommodate consistently high-performing players who narrowly missed out. He specifically mentioned Vincent Keymer of Germany and India's Arjun Erigaisi.
"Maybe this system should kind of account for somebody like Vincent Keymer, who was really close to qualifying a lot of times and has the highest rating of anybody who’s not there. He certainly deserved to be there, but I guess he and Arjun and a few others will have to await their turns," Carlsen observed, noting that their absence would make the tournament no less interesting to follow.
The Context: A New World Champion and Carlsen's Absence
This Candidates tournament carries unique weight, as it will produce the challenger for India's own Gukesh Dommaraju, who became world champion in 2024. The path to this scenario was itself shaped by Carlsen's decision to relinquish his world championship title, which eventually allowed Ding Liren and then Gukesh to claim the throne.
Carlsen's continued disinterest in participating in the Candidates cycle also had a direct consequence: it opened the ratings qualification spot, which was claimed by Hikaru Nakamura. Interestingly, six of the eight Candidates—Praggnanandhaa, Nakamura, Caruana, Wei Yi, Javokhir Sindarov, and Anish Giri—were recently in India for the Global Chess League, alongside champion Gukesh. The group has since traveled to Qatar for the World Rapid and Blitz Championship, the final major event of the 2025 chess calendar.
Carlsen's analysis, coming from the game's highest-rated player and a dominant force for over a decade, provides a crucial benchmark for the upcoming Candidates. It places immense focus on the trio of Nakamura, Caruana, and Praggnanandhaa, while setting expectations for a highly competitive showdown at the top. For Indian fans, the endorsement of Praggnanandhaa as a genuine contender offers thrilling prospects for the possibility of an all-Indian World Championship match in the future.
