With 14 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2024, Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Delhi Capitals (DC) are barely hanging on with a mere 3.2% probability of qualification. On the other hand, Gujarat Titans (GT) have almost secured their spot, while Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) would need a significant downturn to miss out. Punjab Kings (PBKS) also remain in a strong position. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have better than even chances of finishing in the top four, even if tied. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have a slim chance. With 16,384 possible combinations of results, nothing is certain for any of the eight remaining teams.
Probabilities for Top Four Finish
Tuesday’s win has almost guaranteed GT a top-four finish with a 99.6% probability. Their chances of ending up in first or second place, singly or jointly, stand at an impressive 84.5%. RCB have an 88.1% chance of finishing among the top four (including possible ties) and a 59% chance of being among the top two. Tuesday’s loss means SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four have fallen to 76.8%, with only a 35.5% chance of being among the top two. PBKS have a 64.5% chance of a top-four finish and a 28.8% chance of finishing in the top two.
CSK, RR, KKR, and DC
CSK have a 53.9% probability of making the top four and a 22% chance of finishing in the top two. RR have slightly lower odds at 53.8% for the top four and 18.2% for the top two. KKR have a slim 12.8% chance of reaching the playoffs and only a 3.6% chance of being among the top two. DC have kept their hopes alive but just barely, with a 3.2% probability. They can at best finish third, tied with two or three other teams.
How Probabilities Are Calculated
With 14 games remaining, there are 16,384 possible combinations of results. For each team, we analyzed how many of these combinations result in them being among the top four (singly or tied) and among the top two (singly or jointly). For example, GT finish in the top four in 16,324 out of 16,384 combinations, translating to a 99.6% chance.
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