With only 15 games remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026, the playoff race is intensifying. Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) and Mumbai Indians (MI) have already been eliminated, while Delhi Capitals (DC) are barely holding on. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH), and Gujarat Titans (GT) are in strong positions, but Punjab Kings (PBKS) also remain in contention despite a recent loss. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) and Rajasthan Royals (RR) have better than even chances, while Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) have a slim path. With 32,768 possible combinations of results, nothing is certain yet for any of the eight remaining teams.
Probability Breakdown
Top Contenders (Over 88% Chance)
- RCB: 88.4% chance of finishing in the top four (including ties), with a 59.4% chance of being among the top two.
- SRH: 88.1% chance of top four, 59% chance of top two.
- GT: 88.2% chance of top four, 60% chance of top two – slightly higher than RCB and SRH for the top spots.
Strong Contenders (50-65% Chance)
- PBKS: After Monday's loss, their top-four probability dropped to 64.4%, with a 28.2% chance of finishing in the top two.
- CSK: 53.8% chance of top four, 22% chance of top two.
- RR: 53.6% chance of top four, 18.5% chance of top two.
Outside Chances
- KKR: 13.5% chance of making the top four, with a minuscule 3.7% chance of being among the top two.
- DC: With Monday's win, they keep a slim 3.2% probability of reaching the playoffs, at best finishing tied for third with multiple teams.
Methodology
The probabilities are calculated by analyzing all 32,768 possible combinations of results from the remaining 15 games. For each team, the number of combinations where they finish in the top four (singly or tied) is divided by the total combinations. For example, RCB finishes in the top four in 28,980 combinations, giving them an 88.4% chance. The same approach is used for top-two finishes.
Stay updated with the latest IPL Live Score, IPL news on Times of India. Follow the IPL Schedule, check the IPL Points Table, and track the race for the IPL Orange Cap and IPL Purple Cap.
