At a defence forum discussion on strategic stability in Singapore, the dangers of artificial intelligence eclipsed those of nuclear weapons, as panelists warned that AI could reduce reaction times to the point where people make rash decisions.
Collapsing the OODA Loop
Lieutenant General Nauman Zakria, Commander of 1 Corps and Army Rocket Force Command of the Pakistan army, explained that collapsing the so-called 'OODA loop'—an acronym for observe, orient, decide and act—creates a fog in which 'a human can't evaluate the situation fast enough.' Speaking during a discussion at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Saturday, he added, 'People will act irrationally, and the actions will be extreme.'
Red Cross Concerns
Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross and the only panelist not directly involved in defence and security, echoed those concerns. She warned that while technology has the capacity to improve lives, it also vastly increases the danger of war. 'We don't know where the trigger is pulled,' Spoljaric said. 'It could be thousands of kilometres away. So while there are potentials of AI for protecting civilians, what we see at the moment is only the negative side.'
Nuclear Deterrence Still Relevant
Nuclear weapons, the classic example of a strategic deterrent, still featured heavily in the conversation. People's Liberation Army Major General Meng Xiangqing reaffirmed China's no-first-use policy and suggested that if more countries adopted that position, the world would be a safer place. 'If we can do so, we can reduce the risk and we can further enhance strategic stability,' he said.
AI Already on the Battlefield
The conversation repeatedly circled back to artificial intelligence. General Onno Eichelsheim, the Netherlands' chief of defence, noted that such technology had already appeared on the battlefield, as Ukrainians used it to anticipate Russian attacks. The US has also said it deployed AI in planning Iranian strikes. 'AI is a huge risk in escalation. I think that's clear,' Eichelsheim said. 'But I'm not naive. It'll be used in the domain. It is already being used.'
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