The southwest monsoon is poised to make further progress across India over the next few days, bringing widespread rainfall to large parts of the country even as heatwave conditions continue to grip sections of northwest and central India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its latest All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin issued on Monday, has forecast extremely heavy rainfall over parts of Karnataka, heavy rain across much of southern and northeastern India, and thunderstorms accompanied by strong winds in several states.
Monsoon Advance and Rainfall Forecast
According to the IMD, the northern limit of the southwest monsoon currently extends through parts of the Arabian Sea before passing through Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and northeastern India. Meteorologists have indicated that conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance into additional parts of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, as well as the remaining parts of the northeastern states during the next three to four days.
The forecast points to particularly intense rainfall activity over the west coast and adjoining interior regions of peninsular India. Coastal Karnataka is expected to bear the brunt of the wet spell, with extremely heavy rainfall forecast between June 8 and June 10. North Interior Karnataka is also likely to witness extremely heavy rainfall on June 10, while South Interior Karnataka could receive extremely heavy rainfall on June 9 and 10.
Regional Rainfall Details
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected across large parts of Karnataka through much of the week. Kerala and Mahe are also likely to experience a prolonged spell of wet weather, with heavy rainfall forecast from June 10 to June 13 and very heavy rainfall expected during the initial phase of the forecast period. Konkan and Goa are likely to receive heavy rainfall from June 8 to June 11, while Madhya Maharashtra could experience heavy rainfall during June 8 and 9.
In southern India, heavy rainfall warnings have also been issued for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal between June 8 and June 11. Rainfall activity is expected to remain widespread over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and several parts of interior Karnataka throughout the forecast period as the monsoon strengthens its hold over the region.
The northeastern states are expected to remain among the wettest parts of the country this week. Widespread rainfall is likely across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura from June 8 to June 13. The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall across the region on June 8 and very heavy rainfall from June 9 onwards. Given the persistent rainfall, authorities are likely to closely monitor vulnerable areas for possible flooding and landslides.
In eastern India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to witness widespread rainfall throughout the week, with heavy rainfall forecast from June 9 to June 13 and very heavy rainfall possible on June 8. Bihar is also expected to receive heavy rainfall between June 10 and June 11. Odisha, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal are likely to experience intermittent spells of rain and thunderstorms during the forecast period.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to remain under the influence of active weather conditions, with widespread rainfall throughout the week and heavy rainfall likely between June 9 and June 11. Strong winds and thundersquall activity are also expected over the islands.
Thunderstorms and Strong Winds
Apart from rainfall, thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds are expected to affect several parts of the country. Wind speeds of 40 to 50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph, are likely over parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu on different days during the forecast period. Thundersqualls with wind speeds reaching 50 to 60 kmph, gusting up to 70 kmph, are expected over Odisha and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on June 8, Gangetic West Bengal on June 10, and Bihar and Jharkhand between June 10 and June 12.
Heatwave Conditions in North India
While much of India prepares for increased rainfall activity, heatwave conditions are expected to persist over several northern and central states. The IMD has warned that isolated pockets of Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab and West Rajasthan are likely to experience heatwave conditions between June 8 and June 11. Heatwave conditions are also expected over East and West Uttar Pradesh from June 9 onwards and over East and West Madhya Pradesh between June 10 and June 11. Himachal Pradesh may also experience heatwave conditions during June 9 and 10, while Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to remain under heatwave conditions on June 8.
Recent Weather Observations
Recent weather observations indicate that rainfall activity has already intensified in several regions. During the 24-hour period ending Monday morning, rainfall occurred at most places over Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, and Kerala and Mahe. Rainfall was also reported from large parts of Odisha, Northeast India, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Lakshadweep.
Among the notable rainfall figures recorded during the period, Cherrapunji in Meghalaya received 8 cm of rain, while North Lakhimpur in Assam recorded 7 cm. The highest maximum temperature in the country was recorded at Brahmapuri in Maharashtra, where temperatures soared to 45.2 degrees Celsius. Heatwave conditions were observed in isolated pockets of Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Potential Impacts and Warnings
The IMD has warned that heavy and extremely heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding of roads, waterlogging in urban areas, traffic congestion, reduced visibility and temporary disruption of transport services. Hilly regions may face an increased risk of landslides and mudslides, while standing crops and vulnerable structures could suffer damage due to heavy rain and strong winds.
