The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued heavy rain alerts across Kerala, coinciding with the official announcement of the onset of the monsoon season. The alerts come as the state prepares for the annual rainy season, which is critical for agriculture and water resources.
Monsoon Forecast for 2026
While the previous monsoon season brought above-normal rainfall to the region, the IMD's latest forecast predicts that this year's monsoon rainfall will be approximately 90 percent of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA is a benchmark used to assess rainfall patterns over a 50-year period. A deviation of 10 percent from the LPA is considered normal, but the IMD has urged caution as localized heavy downpours could lead to flooding and landslides in vulnerable areas.
Regional Impact and Preparedness
Kerala, known for its susceptibility to monsoon-related disasters, has been placed on high alert. The IMD has specifically warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall in several districts, including Idukki, Wayanad, and Kozhikode. The state disaster management authorities have been instructed to remain vigilant and ensure that relief measures are in place. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea along the Kerala coast due to rough conditions.
The monsoon onset over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month rainy season for the Indian subcontinent. This year, the onset was declared on June 4, 2026, which is within the normal date range. The IMD continues to monitor the situation and will issue updates as necessary.
Previous Season's Performance
In contrast to the current forecast, the 2025 monsoon season recorded above-normal rainfall, leading to significant agricultural benefits but also causing flood-related damages in some regions. The IMD attributes the variability to evolving climatic factors, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions. For 2026, neutral ENSO conditions are expected, which typically support near-normal rainfall.
Residents in low-lying areas are advised to stay informed about weather warnings and take necessary precautions. The IMD has also emphasized the importance of early warning systems to minimize the impact of extreme weather events.
