The northeastern region of India is poised to benefit from both pre-monsoon and monsoon rainfall, providing an early advantage to its agricultural sector. According to data, five out of the seven northeastern states have recorded normal rainfall during the pre-monsoon season from March 1 to May 18. This timely precipitation has kept farmlands productive at a time when fertiliser shortages, exacerbated by the conflict in Iran, could challenge the region and the rest of the country.
Rainfall Distribution Across the Region
Only Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur have experienced deficient rainfall in this period. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast normal to slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall for the northeast, even as many other parts of India may see below-normal precipitation.
Impact on Agriculture in Assam
In Assam, paddy nursery sowing has begun over the past week. Scientists believe that an early monsoon onset, ahead of the usual June 1 date, could further assist farmers. Prof Rajib Lochan Deka from the agricultural meteorology department of Assam Agricultural University stated, "This vigorous rainfall activity has already recharged the low-lying water bodies, besides providing a congenial environment for raising rice nurseries for the ensuing kharif season." He added that pre-monsoon rainfall typically contributes 25% of the annual total in the northeast.
A district-wise analysis reveals that 11 districts in Assam received excess rainfall (more than 20% above normal), while 17 districts experienced normal rainfall (within 19% of normal). Prof Deka cautioned, "For the ensuing monsoon season, IMD's prediction for rainfall in this region is likely to be normal or above normal. But occurrence of dry spell during active kharif rice growing season cannot be overlooked."
