Warmer February Predicted Across India with Significant Agricultural Implications
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monthly weather outlook for February 2024, forecasting above normal temperatures across most parts of the country. This prediction includes both minimum (night) and maximum (day) temperatures, indicating a generally warmer month than usual for this time of year.
Temperature and Rainfall Patterns
According to the IMD's Saturday announcement, above normal monthly temperatures are expected over most regions of India during February. Simultaneously, the department has predicted below normal cold wave days over several parts of northwest India, including the Delhi-NCR region, and adjoining central India areas.
The meteorological outlook also indicates below normal rainfall over most parts of the country, with exceptions in some areas of northwest and east-central India. This combination of warmer temperatures and reduced precipitation creates specific challenges for various sectors.
Agricultural Impacts and Advisories
The IMD has issued specific advisories regarding the potential agricultural consequences of these weather patterns. Dry conditions and higher-than-normal temperatures during February may adversely impact farm and allied sectors, potentially leading to yield reduction across multiple crop types.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained, "The crop advisories and impacts have been prepared by us in association with the department of agriculture, for which farmers need to be prepared." He emphasized the collaborative nature of these forecasts and their practical implications for agricultural planning.
Specific Crop Vulnerabilities
The warmer conditions present particular risks for several important crops:
- Wheat and barley in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan could experience "forced maturity," potentially leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains that reduce yields
- Oilseeds and pulses including mustard, chickpea, lentil, and field pea may show early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size and lower yields
- Vegetable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cauliflower, cabbage, and peas could be adversely affected during critical growth stages including tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering, and fruit setting
The elevated temperatures can induce specific problems including bolting in onion and garlic, reduced tuber bulking in potato, flower drop in tomato, and deterioration of cole crops, all contributing to potential yield reduction and decreased market value.
Horticultural and Livestock Concerns
The IMD's Agromet advisory extends beyond field crops to include significant impacts on other agricultural sectors:
- Horticultural crops including mango, citrus, banana, and grapes may experience early flowering, uneven fruit set and increased fruit drop
- Temperate fruits like apple, pear and peach may see reduced chilling accumulation, leading to irregular flowering and poor fruit development
- Livestock and poultry may experience heat stress, resulting in reduced feed intake, decline in milk yield and egg production, and increased susceptibility to diseases without adequate cooling and hydration measures
Broader Implications
The less rainfall situation during February may impact standing Rabi (winter sown) crops by increasing irrigation costs for farmers. Additionally, the warmer conditions could favor rapid multiplication of pests such as aphids and other sucking insects, creating additional challenges for crop protection.
These comprehensive forecasts represent the IMD's ongoing effort to provide actionable weather intelligence to India's agricultural community, helping farmers and agricultural planners prepare for and mitigate potential climate-related challenges during the critical February growing period.
