The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a significant seasonal forecast, indicating that central and adjoining northwest India should prepare for a notably chilly winter. The key takeaway is an anticipated increase in the number of cold wave days during the coming season.
Details of the IMD Winter Forecast
According to the meteorological authority, regions encompassing central India and its neighbouring northwestern parts are likely to experience lower-than-normal temperatures. The core of the forecast hinges on the prediction of a higher frequency of cold wave conditions. A cold wave is officially declared when the minimum temperature dips to specific thresholds, typically 4.5 to 6.4 degrees Celsius below the normal, depending on the region's climate.
This forecast is based on an analysis of global weather patterns, including sea surface temperatures and atmospheric phenomena. The IMD's models suggest that these large-scale factors are aligning in a way that favours increased incursions of cold, dry winds from the northern latitudes into the Indian subcontinent, particularly affecting the plains of central and northwest India.
Potential Impact and Regions Affected
The advisory puts states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, and parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat on alert. For these areas, the winter months from December through February could be harsher than recent years.
An increase in cold wave days has direct implications for public health, agriculture, and daily life. It elevates the risk of cold-related illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations, and can damage certain rabi crops that are sensitive to severe frost. Transportation and infrastructure may also face disruptions due to dense fog, which often accompanies such cold conditions.
Preparedness and Advisory
In light of this forecast, authorities and citizens are advised to begin winter preparedness measures. This includes ensuring adequate stocks of warm clothing and blankets, especially for the homeless, and making necessary arrangements to protect crops and livestock. The health departments are likely to issue advisories on dealing with hypothermia and respiratory problems aggravated by the cold.
The IMD has clarified that this is a broad seasonal outlook, and detailed, location-specific warnings about impending cold waves will be issued as and when the conditions develop. They will continue to monitor the situation and provide regular updates throughout the winter season.
