Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions Explode into 'Open War'
The longstanding hostility between Afghanistan and Pakistan has dramatically intensified, pushing the region to the brink of full-scale war. On February 27, Pakistan's defence minister declared that his country is now in an "open war" with Afghanistan, marking a significant escalation in cross-border hostilities.
Recent Military Escalations and Claims
This conflict, though not new, flared up on February 26, with both nations accusing each other of initiating the latest violence. The Afghan Taliban asserted that their forces launched attacks on Pakistani positions along sections of the porous and disputed Durand Line, particularly affecting the border districts of Bajaur and Kurram.
A Pakistani military officer confirmed that Afghan Taliban drones targeted three locations: the army's artillery school in Nowshehra, a site near a military academy in Abbottabad, and an area close to a primary school in Swabi. However, all drones were reportedly intercepted.
In retaliation, the Taliban claimed to have captured over 15 Pakistani check posts and killed several Pakistani soldiers. This action was in response to Pakistan's airstrikes on the border area on February 21, which allegedly resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children.
Pakistan's information ministry denied these allegations, stating that its military conducted an "intelligence-based, selective operation" against seven militant camps belonging to groups like TTP and ISKP in the eastern Afghan provinces of Nangarhar, Khost, and Paktika.
Operation Righteous Fury and Casualty Reports
These airstrikes followed a month of deadly attacks inside Pakistan, which Islamabad claimed were orchestrated from Afghan soil. Pakistan subsequently launched Operation Ghazib Lil-haq, or "Operation Righteous Fury," targeting 22 locations, including military installations in major cities and provinces such as Laghman, Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia.
Mosharraf Zaidi, Pakistan's prime minister's spokesperson for foreign media, reported that this operation resulted in 297 Afghan fighters killed, 89 Afghan posts destroyed, 18 soldiers captured, and over 450 injured. While both sides have claimed significant damage, the exact scale of casualties remains unclear.
Historical and Strategic Context of the Conflict
This latest violence continues tensions that had already driven Afghanistan-Pakistan relations to their lowest point in years by 2025. October 2025 was described as "the worst fighting since the Taliban's 2021 takeover of Kabul," marked by deadly border clashes, disrupted trade, and diplomatic breakdown.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring sanctuaries for TTP and other insurgent groups, while the Taliban-led government rejects this, calling the TTP issue Pakistan's "internal problem" and accusing Islamabad of violating Afghanistan's sovereignty through cross-border airstrikes.
According to a report by the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), Pakistan experienced a sharp escalation in militant violence in 2025, with terrorist attacks rising by 34% and terrorism-related fatalities increasing by 21%, a trend persisting since the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021.
Initially, Pakistan welcomed the Taliban's return to power as a strategic victory, expecting it to provide security buffers against India and align with Pakistani interests. However, this anticipated "strategic depth" failed to materialize, as militant sanctuaries in Afghanistan fueled a resurgence of the Pakistan Taliban and Baloch insurgent groups.
Meanwhile, India-Afghanistan relations gained momentum, especially after the Afghan foreign minister visited New Delhi in October last year, creating strategic uncertainty for Pakistan.
Roots in the Durand Line Dispute
The conflict's roots trace back to 1893 when the Durand Line was drawn by British colonial authorities, cutting through Pashtun tribal lands. No Afghan regime, including the Taliban, has ever willingly recognized this boundary.
Aimal Faizi, spokesman for former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, stated, "The Durand Line is an issue of historical importance for Afghanistan and any decision on its status should be taken by the people, not by the government." In contrast, Islamabad treats the Durand Line as an international frontier, fortifying it with barbed wire, which has periodically triggered fatal border skirmishes.
Domestic and International Dimensions
It is widely believed that Pakistan may be leveraging this conflict to divert attention from its ongoing political and economic instability. Commentators note that the issue has generated unusual political consensus at home in support of the military's response, reminiscent of the unity seen during Operation Zarb-e-Azb a decade ago.
Pakistan's state establishment, particularly its military, has promoted a narrative of strategic encirclement by hostile forces—India to the east and Afghanistan to the west—to rally domestic support and justify cross-border actions.
Humanitarian and Migration Implications
Humanitarian and migration dynamics are closely intertwined with this volatile security landscape. Since 2023, and more forcefully in 2024 and 2025, Pakistan has increasingly instrumentalized Afghan refugee repatriation to pressure the Taliban administration to act against militant groups operating from Afghanistan.
Although Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees for decades, Islamabad now frames their presence as a security, economic, and administrative burden, using forceful deportations to influence Taliban behavior amid Afghanistan's severe humanitarian and economic crisis.
Regional and International Responses
In response to media queries about Pakistan's airstrikes on Afghanistan, MEA's Official Spokesperson Shri Randhir Jaiswal said: "India strongly condemns Pakistan's airstrikes on Afghan territory that have resulted in civilian casualties, including women and children, during the holy month of Ramadan." The MEA is reportedly closely monitoring the situation.
Other regional countries and international organizations are urging both sides to exercise restraint and prioritize dialogue. Iran offered to facilitate talks, while Turkey engaged counterparts from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, urging de-escalation.
China expressed concern and called for a ceasefire, and Russia—the only country to recognize the current Taliban government—urged an immediate halt to cross-border attacks and a diplomatic resolution. In contrast, the United States extended support to Pakistan in the standoff with the Afghan Taliban.
Prospects for Dialogue and Stability
Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban's spokesperson, announced that the group's leadership is prepared to negotiate with Pakistan to end the violence, potentially opening a window for dialogue. However, this opportunity is likely to remain temporary and fragile.
Without a fundamental recalibration of security approaches—prioritizing cooperative counterterrorism mechanisms, sustained diplomatic engagement, and confidence-building measures—Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are expected to remain a source of regional instability in the coming days.
