NATO leaders are set to convene for a summit in Ankara on July 7-8, facing a multitude of challenges that range from Europe assuming greater responsibility for continental security to accelerating defence industrial production. Some officials fear the Iran war may overshadow the gathering, but they hope leaders will stay focused on the alliance's core mission: defence and deterrence. The following are the principal challenges confronting NATO in the near and medium term.
Maintaining U.S. Commitment
A top priority for NATO officials is preserving unity and ensuring the United States remains committed to Article 5, the collective defence clause stating that an attack on one member is an attack on all. This year, the transatlantic relationship has been strained by two crises: U.S. President Donald Trump's demand for ownership of Greenland, a Danish autonomous territory and NATO member, and his anger over allies' response to the Iran war. Trump has labelled NATO a "paper tiger" and floated the idea of withdrawing from the alliance. Secretary-General Mark Rutte has been working to ease tensions, employing flattery and data to convince Trump that European allies are meeting their commitments.
Shifting the Burden to Europe
The Trump administration is pushing European governments to assume primary responsibility for Europe's conventional defence as Washington shifts focus to the Indo-Pacific. Changes are already evident: the U.S. has reduced the pool of military capabilities available to NATO in a crisis, with European members filling most gaps. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has announced a review of American troop deployments in Europe and threatened to withhold U.S. dues if "free-riding" allies fail to meet defence spending targets. European officials acknowledge the need to step up but argue that the transition requires time and express concern over Washington's policy unpredictability.
Boosting Defence Spending
European NATO members and Canada face significant pressure to increase defence investment, both to enhance deterrence against Russia and to demonstrate to Trump that they take his burden-shifting demands seriously. At a summit in The Hague last year, NATO leaders endorsed a substantial spending increase, pledging to allocate 5% of GDP to defence and related measures within a decade, with 3.5% for core defence (troops and weapons) and 1.5% for broader defence-related items. According to alliance data, European allies and Canada raised defence spending by 20% in real terms in 2025 compared to the previous year. However, not all members are on track to meet the new targets, and some governments are encountering political obstacles to further increases.
Industrial Capacity
As European NATO countries boost defence investment, a key challenge is converting funds into new military capabilities quickly. At the Ankara summit, members are expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts. Yet some officials express frustration that production has not ramped up as hoped, with orders still taking years to fulfil. NATO leadership has called on industry to collaborate, open new production lines, and accelerate delivery.
Deterring Russia
NATO leaders in Ankara are expected to reaffirm that Russia poses a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. While alliance officials note Russia faces significant economic problems and Ukraine has strengthened its position, Secretary-General Rutte has warned that nearly half of Russia's state budget is now dedicated to defence, urging the alliance not to be naive about Moscow's intentions.
Supporting Ukraine
European NATO members continue to finance aid for Kyiv more than four years after Russia's full-scale invasion. Funding flows through bilateral assistance, a European Union loan, and the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List initiative, where European countries pay to supply Ukraine with U.S. weapons. Although most European leaders express commitment to ongoing support for Kyiv, sustaining high funding levels remains difficult amid competing national budget demands and concerns that some European governments are contributing disproportionately more than others.
