LONDON: Voters in Makerfield, Wigan, Greater Manchester, could determine the future of the UK government when they cast ballots in a crucial byelection on Thursday. The former coal mining constituency, held by Labour since its creation in 1983, is a classic red wall seat that Labour never expected to lose. Now, Makerfield is at the center of British politics as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (Labour) faces local plumber Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) in a tight race.
Leadership Contest Looms
Burnham has stated he will immediately trigger a leadership contest to remove Prime Minister Keir Starmer if elected as MP on Thursday. The byelection was prompted by former Labour MP Josh Simons, who announced on May 14—a week after Labour's poor local election results—that he would step down to allow Burnham to return to Parliament. Burnham was a Labour MP until 2017.
On the same day, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned from the Cabinet, criticizing Starmer for lacking vision and direction. However, he did not call for a leadership contest, preferring to give Burnham the opportunity to challenge.
Starmer's Response
Speaking at the G7 summit on Wednesday, PM Starmer described a leadership contest as a “bad thing” for the country and pledged to fight any challenge. He emphasized that Labour should focus on the potential mayoral election that would follow and promised Burnham a “big job” in his government. If Reform UK wins, it would derail Burnham's ambition to become PM, severely damage Labour, and intensify calls for Starmer's resignation.
Tight Race
Polls indicate a close contest, with Burnham holding a narrow 5-point lead over Kenyon. This suggests Burnham's popularity as mayor may be helping Labour outperform its broader party brand. Restore UK, which is in third place and positions itself as more right-wing than Reform UK, could split the right-wing vote and help Burnham win. Meanwhile, Green and Liberal Democrat voters are reportedly lending their support to Burnham. According to Opinium, Labour's five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain's current vote share.
