The United States anticipates a significant drop in international visitors from India in 2026, the largest among its top 12 source markets, according to the US Commerce Department's National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO). The official forecast for 2026 projects over 70 million international visitors to the US, a 3.2% increase from last year's 68 million. However, arrivals from only two of the top 12 source markets are expected to decline: India (by over 4%) and France (by about 1%).
India's Position Slips
In 2025, India was the fourth largest source market overall for international visitors to the US, after Mexico and Canada (neighbors) and the second largest overseas market after the UK. But in 2026, Japan and Brazil are projected to overtake India, pushing it to the sixth spot. The NTTO report notes that India and China present divergent near-term outlooks: Indian arrivals are forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2026, with a return to growth expected in 2027, while Chinese arrivals are forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2026, with more robust growth projected through 2030.
Challenges for Indian Travelers
The findings are not surprising given the multiple issues faced by potential Indian visitors to the US. These include visa problems, particularly for students; limited connectivity, with Air India reducing flights due to airspace restrictions; and very high airfares that predate the West Asia conflict. United Airlines has yet to return to pre-COVID levels due to restrictions on overflying Russia for US carriers. These factors have led to subdued demand for months, and the US-Iran conflict has further increased airfares and reduced flights. Additionally, the rupee's depreciation has made foreign travel more expensive for Indians.
Travel agents report apprehension among Indian travelers. Some concerns may be unfounded, but overall travel to the US and Canada has been declining. While Canada shows signs of recovery, the US has not yet seen a rebound.
Broader Forecast
The NTTO forecast covers the top 12 source markets: Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, Italy, UK, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Brazil. These markets collectively accounted for 77.2% of total international arrivals to the US in 2025. The anticipated growth in 2026 is partly driven by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The NTTO forecasts international visitation to the US will reach an all-time high of 82 million in 2029 before rising further to 85 million in 2030.
